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The market is at a critical juncture as US President Donald Trump has yet to issue any executive orders related to cryptocurrencies or the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Renowned cryptocurrency analyst MacroScope (@MacroScope17) reignited the debate through X, questioning whether such reserves are already “priced in” by current market valuations.
Are President Trump's Bitcoin reserves priced in?
The concept that an asset is “priced” refers to the idea that all known information about potential events is already reflected in its current price. Macroscope draws parallels between the current speculation surrounding SBR and the period leading up to the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“In some ways, the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve debate mirrors the ETF debate we’ve seen before,” Macroscope shared about X. Just as ETFs have broadened access and increased institutional participation, he emphasized that government-backed reserves have the potential to grow exponentially. A pool of capital entering the market.
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Macroscope's analysis is rooted in his observations before the advent of Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, he argued that ETFs will spark a new wave of investment by making Bitcoin more accessible to a wider range of investors. “A few days before the ETF trading began, I posted the following on BTC 44k,” he recalled.
Indeed, the introduction of ETFs has made Bitcoin more accessible and has attracted significant interest from institutional investors and retailers. Macroscope believes a similar scenario could play out in the SBR, albeit with more impact. Unlike ETFs, which primarily promote liquidity and accessibility, SBR would signal strong government support for Bitcoin.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin reserves will expand “certainly the pool of participants in terms of available capital.” This will have a huge impact worldwide. [It] This may be due to the psychology of an arms race. […] ETFs influenced the price of Bitcoin through ease of access. “US strategic reserves will influence prices through global sentiment and urgency,” he added.
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Macroscope cited posts from previous years to support his argument. Yes, currently eligible speculators and their available capital can purchase in advance of the event. But if the number of participants is about to expand significantly, that's as far as “pricing” goes. ”
Nick Moran, founder and CEO of Space Race Energy, responded enthusiastically to MacroScope's claims. “Mr. Macroscope, you are committed to this,” Moran asserted. He elaborated on the possibility of a “large-scale SBR” under a potential “Trump 2.0” administration, suggesting such a move could set a precedent for other countries to follow.
Although political support is still in its infancy, it looks promising. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a prominent pro-Bitcoin voice on Capitol Hill and author of the Bitcoin Act, recently said on a podcast: And we're not in an arms race over weapons, we're in an arms race over Bitcoin. ”
David Bailey, CEO of BTC and a key advisor to the Trump campaign regarding crypto assets, expressed his expectations for X following President Trump's pardon of Ross Ulbricht. “We expect to see a dedicated Bitcoin and cryptocurrency EO in the coming days,” Bailey said, hinting at a possible future executive order that could formalize the creation of SBR. He further predicted, “We fully expect the president to deliver on the SBR in his first 100 days in office.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $102,295.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
