A large amount of liquidation, the CRASH drop of the cipher, and everywhere, the top analyst says this can be the biggest opportunity for cipher. Can President Donald Trump's tariff actually supply fuel to the next big movement of bitcoin?
Editor Note: This article was written before the US government reached a provisional transaction with the Mexico government, and will suspend at least the implementation. Tariff One month. You can read here about this development.
The encryption market has rapidly retreated, following the latest economic uncertainty waves caused by the new US tariffs.
On February 1, the United States imposed a 25 % tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, imposed 10 % of tariffs on Chinese products, expanding trade tensions, and applying pressure to the global market.
In this situation, Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered to $ 91,200 and recovered to $ 96,000, but fell 2.5 % in the last 24 hours as of February 3. $ 2,600.
According to Coingecko, the entire Crypto market lost $ 300 billion in 24 hours, reducing the total market capitalization of $ 3.25 trillion.
The derivative market is facing heavy liquidation, and coinglass has wiped out $ 2,333 million. Long Trader suffered the most suffering and lost $ 19.1 billion, but the short position had a $ 417 million liquidation. Ethernereum led a $ 600 million liquidation, followed by $ 400 million bitcoins.
Cryvoloration promotes inflation, confuses supply chains, and weakens economic growth. It is a factor that affects market emotions. The current important problem is how deep this correction is and whether the market has endured long -term volatility. Let's look it up.
Credential as a strategic lever
The US economic strategy, especially customs duties, has been expanded beyond trade policies and functions as part of a widespread financial approach.
According to Jeff Park, director of Alpha Strategies in Bitwise, this strategy leads to Triffin's dilemma. This is a problem related to the role of the US dollar as a global preparatory currency.
“The United States wants to keep borrowing cheaply, but at the same time it is necessary to weaken the trade deficit between dollars and rebalancing. It is a paradox, and tariffs are an indirect tool for forcing them to move in that direction. It is positioned.
Global trade depends on the dollar, so foreign governments and central banks must hold large -scale reserves. This dynamic will continue to overestimate dollars structurally, reducing export competition, enabling the government to borrow under preferred conditions.
To maintain this system, the United States has a historic permanent trade deficit, and has effectively supplied the world to the world at the expense of its industrial base.
But now, Park has pointed out that the United States is looking for a way to counter the over -rated dollar adverse effects without giving up on the superiority of borrowing. In this context, tariffs are used. It is used not as a conventional protectionist, but as a tool to affect the ownership of the foreign government's dollar reserve and the US Treasury.
“If you succeed, customs duties can set the latest version of the 1985 Plaza Code,” Park says. “But instead of direct negotiations, the United States is applying asymmetric economic pressure.”
The goal is to encourage trade partners to shift from short -term Finance to long -term debt. This may help stabilize US debt markets while promoting dollar -managed depreciation.
However, this strategy is risky. Credit increases costs, contributes to inflation, and encourages the central bank to adjust the policy in a way to create instability in financial markets containing cipher.
If inflation is too fast, the federal preparation system and other central banks may respond with measures to increase the volatility of all risk assets.
“People believe that customs duties are just trade,” says the park. “However, when you retreat, they are part of a wider wider financial strategy. If you do it correctly, you can reconstruct the overall financial balance.”
Role of bitcoin in the era of financial reorganization
If the United States weakens the dollar while maintaining a low borrowing cost, the financial situation may be more advantageous for risk assets such as bitcoin. The park will explain:
“Trump's main goal is to lower the yield of the Ministry of Finance for 10 years, which is simple. His economic interests are particularly dependent on real estate. Powell has reduced short -term rates. To realize that it was not functioning, he did not underestimate someone's simple incentive.
Initially, the administration applied pressure to the federal preparation system to reduce rates. When the approach did not have desirable results, the tariff was the next tool.
Credcriptions have increased the cost of the major trade -dependent economy, and as economic growth is slower, foreign governments are more likely to respond to financial easing and fiscal stimuli, which can weaken the dollar currency. I have sex. As a result, inflation is exported to the United States while improving global liquidity.
Historically, investors seeking protection of inflation and currency collapse have turned into gold, government bonds, and real estate.
Today, bitcoin will present an additional option. This is a liquid that operates outside the government and is valuable. Park believes that both US and foreign investors rely on bitcoin, but there are various reasons.
“In the United States, Bitcoin can function as a hedge for the weakness of the dollar and inflation, but in the foreign market, it can escape from the cut down of local currency,” Park says.
“Mark my words: 10 years yield falls -what is it?” “In a low -dollar and low US interest rates, US risk assets can rise beyond expectations, so the assets they own are bitcoin.”
When the park was evaluated, the first contributing to the decline of bitcoin (recipient, financial uncertainty, concerns about inflation) was the end of the next adoption wave. I was able to play a role in driving.
Expert's perspective: How tariffs will reconstruct the encryption market
Crypto.news specializes in the industry that provides various insights on the reaction, structural change, and the evolving roles of bitcoin to understand the wider US tariffs in Crypto in Crypto.news. I reached out to my house.
Some people consider selling as temporary reactions, while others argue that they have shown a deeper economic change that may be reconstructed in global finance.
Panic sales or basic shift?
Kevin HE, a co -founder of Bitlayer Labs, believes that recent decline in market declines is mainly overreacting, but it warns that its long -term impact depends on a more expensive economic situation. 。
“In the short term, this looks like an overreaction by the market, but in the long term, the impact depends on how the cryptographic market interacts with the global economic environment.”
He pointed out that if the tension of trade escalated to a recession, the facility could reduce exposure to high -risk assets such as ciphers, but Bitcoin could attract more safer haven demand. 。
“If the trade war causes a global economic recession, institutions may reduce exposure to ciphers and technical stocks and persist fluid pressure, but inflation worsens and capital control is tightened. In this case, the cipher may attract secure inventory, especially stability and specific definition assets. “
Min Xue, the investment partner of ForeSight Ventures, also regards an emotional reaction, not a sign of a long -term economic recession.
“The market generally works in collaboration with the mainstream financial sector. The latest bitcoin falls to $ 91,000 is a knee reaction at best. This latest BloodBath is a very amazing winter It is not the gateway to. “
Although short -term volatility is dominant, professionals argue that tariffs can cause structural changes in the cryptocation market, from mining dynamics to fluid flows. Daria Morgen, a research manager of Changelly, believes that Trump's economic policy may turn more investors into distributed assets.
“As a technology that goes beyond government management, cipher can be a hedge against economic and political instability. It is ironic that its recruitment is not direct support, but from policy -led volatility. It may accelerate as an evacuation center.
She added that the growing bitcoin has suggested that investors are already regarded as hedges in uncertain times.
“The rapid increase of bitcoin's rule to 61 % suggests that investors in the space already regard BTCs as relatively stable assets in uncertainty.”
Long -term stability of mining costs and bitcoin
The rise in tariffs on mining hardware can also affect the long -term evaluation and stability of bitcoin.
Rahul Suri, a Ghaf Capital establishment partner, has warned that it could drive out higher operating costs from the market and affect network security and transaction fees.
“If tariffs remain and the miner is facing the rise of operating costs, you may witness a permanent change in market emotions. Increasing mining costs will increase transaction fees, hinder innovation, and to innovate. The fuel may be extended for a long time.
However, some people think that Bitcoin mining networks are adapted. Alexis Silquia, chairman of the yellow network, has pointed out that large mining workers have been able to relocate or coordinate to a new economic situation.
“Additional hardware requirements can emphasize small miners, but larger institutional mining workers can adapt and maintain profitability.”
He also pointed out that the rise in cost could lead to the rise in bitcoin invading prices and set a new price floor.
“The higher the mining cost, the tremendous price of bitcoin, which can increase the BTC floor.”
Changes in investment trends and cross market correlation
Experts have also focused on how tariffs can change investors' behavior and affect the cross -market correlation.
Georgii Verbitskii, the founder of Tymio, believes that sale reflects more widespread macro -economic fears, not just concerns related to tariffs.
“Trump trying to break the old world order causes fear and volatility throughout the global financial market as well as ciphers. In the risk of BTC, BTC, which is still recognized as speculative assets. , Continue to fall.
However, some people argue that trade tensions could further push investors into bitcoin as hedging for uncertainty. XUE is regarded as a bitcoin adopted accelerator, especially when the conventional financial market is weakened.
“If customs duties weaken the conventional market and push investors to alternative assets, there is a possibility that the recruitment of bitcoin will increase, demand and promote mining activities.”
Kevin He is also looking at the long -term changes in capital style to distributed finances.
“If a specific country has strengthened foreign exchange management or imposes more severe capital restrictions, some investors will look at the Defi protocol as an alternative to capital management to promote the growth of financial services on the chain. There is a case.
Sirkia believes that customs duties will further integrate Crypto into global finance and are more sensitive to macroeconomic events.
“We can see that the convergence between conventional financial markets and ciphers is increasing, which means that macro economic events such as tariffs affect digital assets, which are more immediate than the past. Suggests.
What do you expect next?
The impact of tariffs on encryption is still being developed, but some important trends have appeared.
Bitcoin is a short -term volatility because it reacts to a wider market uncertainty. However, if inflation rises or the global fluid becomes severe, cipher may be traction as a hedge for economic instability.
The long -term outlook is still powerful, but those who bet on excess traders and immediate rebounds should take care of them.
We do not invest wisely and invest more than you can afford to lose.
