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A guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world.
“Everyone was fighting me in my first term,” Donald Trump said before Christmas. “Everyone wants to be my friend this season.'' He has a point. Eight years ago, President Trump faced an angry protest movement that flooded Washington and resisted a short-lived “Muslim ban” in his first days in office. There are very few peeps this time. The mood of the opposition changed from furious to melancholy.
The Democratic Party is in disarray. 2017 produced Nancy Pelosi, the most formidable party leader in decades. Pelosi's last significant act was helping force Joe Biden to resign last summer. But by then, she had impeached Trump twice and maintained an iron grip on the party. This time, Democrats lack a strategy. The default position of working with Mr. Trump when possible and opposing him when necessary is divisive. Without a helmsman, the party is adrift in a sea of Trump.
The Republican Party will not act as a check either. Last time, it was the late Sen. John McCain from Arizona who most effectively thwarted President Trump. But for McCain, Trump was supposed to repeal Obamacare. At the time, there were a significant number of Republicans in the Senate who could challenge Trump. Four of the seven people who voted to convict Trump in early 2021 are Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Richard Burr of North Carolina, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. A person disappeared. The remaining three, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, are not enough to overturn the party's majority.
Today's Supreme Court is like Maga in a robe. In 2017, conservatives held a 5-4 majority on the court. However, Anthony Kennedy, one of the Republican-appointed justices, often tended to side with liberals. This time, with a 6-3 majority, the court looks more like a rubber stamp than a check on overbearing executives. Trump has already given up on the challenge. As for TikTok, it has ignored a bipartisan ban passed by Congress that was upheld by a court last week. His defiant attitude is reminiscent of America's seventh president, Andrew Jackson, who is said to have told the presiding judge, “Let it be executed now,” after the court banned the seizure of Cherokee land. Jackson won.
Mr. Trump has already played Jackson's card. In one of his executive orders Monday, he made wild remarks about the 14th Amendment, which grants automatic citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil. The ball is in your court, so to speak. Same goes for TikTok. Whose army will the justices enforce the rulings that President Trump chooses to ignore? The justices gave President Trump a near-blank verdict last summer when they decreed presidential immunity for all “official acts.” This category is very vaguely defined, and President Trump can do whatever he wants.
Will President Trump seek court or Congressional permission to seize the Panama Canal? He ends up violating two treaties, but the question answers itself. A similar defensive posture surrounds the media. In 2017, the Washington Post adopted the slogan “Democracy Dies in the Dark” and set an example for the industry. Last week, the company added a mission statement: “Bringing captivating storytelling across America.” Its owner, Jeff Bezos, was one of the plutocrats who attended President Trump's inauguration. His company, Amazon Prime, paid First Lady Melania Trump $40 million to help make a documentary about herself. I'd be surprised if it would be commercially profitable.
So who will stand up to Trump? Just as allies were skeptical during President Trump's first term, they are resigned today. German Chancellor Angela Merkel then became Europe's first equivalent. Currently, Italy's Giorgia Meloni, who attended President Trump's inauguration, is the safest leader on the Italian continent. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, like other prime ministers, is trying to lay low to curry favor with President Trump. The Danish government may have been hoping for some degree of unity after President Trump declared he wanted to annex Greenland. But so far the protests have subsided. If President Trump can covet territory of allies with impunity, it would appear that the only check on him is himself.
He has now reached the peak of his power. But power tends to flee. Republicans could lose control of Congress in 2026, at which point President Trump would become a lame duck. At least that's what the Democratic Party is focusing on. But President Trump's opponents should know that the next time they regain the White House, they will inherit a very different country. Trump is trying to remake America in his image. You cannot enter the same river twice.
edward.luce@ft.com
