The Bitcoin Market has long been defined by the seemingly unchanged four -year cycle, three -year rising price patterns, and a sharp correction. However, the change in policy earthquakes from Washington, led by former President Donald Trump, has broken this cycle and reaches a new era of long -term growth in the cryptocurrency industry.
Matt Hougan, the highest investment in Bitwise Asset Management, has recently raised interesting questions. Can Trump's presidential ordinance break the Crypto's four -year cycle? His answer is subtle, but he is emphasized yes。
4 -year cycle: Summary
Hougan clarifies his personal belief that the Bitcoin Market Cycle for four years has not been promoted by Bitcoin's harvest event. He said, “People try to link it to the” half “of bitcoin, but those harassing are incorrectly adjusted as the cycle that occurred in 2016, 2020 and 2024. “
Bitcoin's four -year cycle has been promoted historically by the combination of investors' emotions, technical breakthroughs, and market dynamics. Bruns usually appear, following important catalysts that are raising or institutional adoption of IT infrastructure that attracts new capital and fuel speculation. As time goes on, leverage accumulates and excess, and major events such as regulation crackdowns and financial fraud cause brutal corrections.
This pattern has been expanded repeatedly. From the beginning of the explosion of Mount Gocks in 2014, the ICO boom and bust from 2017 to 2018, and recently, the FTX and the collapse of the three arrows have been deleted in 2022. However, every winter was even more powerful, leading to the latest Bitcoin, which spurred the mainstream of Bitcoin ETF in 2024.
Related: NASDAQ proposes the RED of Bitcoin ETF in Blackrock
Presidential Order: Game changer
Hougan's fundamental problem is whether Trump's recent presidential order, which gives priority to the development of US digital asset ecosystem, confuse established cycles. An overview of a clear regulation framework, and the order of the state of digital assets on the nation is the most bullish attitude toward sitting or the former President of the U.S. to bitcoin.
The meaning is profound:
- Clarity of regulations: By eliminating legal uncertainties, EO opens a path that flows to bitcoin on an unprecedented facility.
- Wall Street integration: Since SEC and financial regulatory authorities are currently in favor, major banks can enter the space and provide clients with bitcoin protection, lending, and structured products.
- Government recruitment: The concept of stockpiling nationwide digital assets suggests a future that the US Treasury can hold Bitcoin as a spare asset, and has solidified as a digital gold.
These developments will not be played overnight, but their cumulative effects may fundamentally change bitcoin market dynamics. Unlike the previous cycle driven by speculative returning euphoria, this shift is supported by the adoption of the system and the approval of regulations. This is a much more stable foundation.
Related: Why hundreds of companies buy bitcoin in 2025
The end of the cryptographic winter?
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin will continue to rise to 2025 in 2025 and face a significant withdrawal in 2026. But Hougan suggests that this time may be different. He acknowledges the risk of speculative overcurgency and leverage -driven foam, but he argues that the enormous scale of institutional adoption hinders the long -term bear market in the past.
This is an important distinction. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin had no power -oriented investors' powerful bases. This asset is no longer only for retail enthusiasm, as ETFs are easy to assign pensions, hedge funds, and sovereignty to bitcoin today. result? Correction can still occur, but they are probably shallow and shorter.
What will come next?
Bitcoin has already exceeded $ 100,000 marks, suggesting that forecasts from industry leaders, including the black rock CEO, Rally Fink, could reach $ 700,000 in the next few years. Masu. If Trump's policy accelerates institutional recruitment, a typical four -year pattern will be replaced with a more traditional asset class growth trajectory of how money responded at the end of the Gold Standard in the 1970s. You can.
Related: BlackRock CEO's Larry Fink predicts $ 700,000 bitcoin prices for inflation.
There is a risk, including unexpected regulations and excess leverage, but the travel direction is clear. Bitcoin is becoming a mainstream financial assets. If the four -year cycle is driven by the early Bitcoin and speculative properties, the maturity may abolish such a cycle.
Conclusion
For over 10 years, investors have used a four -year cycle as a roadmap for bitcoin market movement. However, Trump's presidential ordinance may be a decisive moment to confuse this pattern, and will be more sustained and institutional -led. There is no problem with Wall Street, Companies, and even the government to accept bitcoin. if Crypto Winter will be held in 2026, but rather If it comes at all.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for information only and does not make a financial advice. Readers recommend a thorough independent survey before making an investment decision.
