The cryptocurrency market has suffered a significant downturn, with many of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing sharp price declines. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, hit a low of $61,600 on Tuesday.
However, industry experts suggest that the economy may recover. higher highs That may be coming true as the long-awaited halving event approaches.
Cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst Adrian Zdunczyk provides valuable insight into market dynamics, focusing on key factors such as bull market indicators, ETFs, and impending halving events.
BTC mixed signal
According to Zdunczyk, analysisthe market is showing bullish signs, with the 200-week and 50-week moving averages (MA) at $33,700 and $39,900, respectively.
The net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) ratio was 0.55, indicating a favorable trading environment. Additionally, the 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) remains strong at 0.71.
In terms of daily trends, Zdunczyk said Bitcoin is currently in a volatile range between $59,000 and $74,000, with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $46,600 and a 200-day Bitcoin points out that it is on the rise. Production cost (BPRO) rose to $57,700.
However, analysts note that medium-term momentum has declined, with 50-day average true range (ATR) volatility rising to $3,270. This suggests that Bitcoin's overall price trend is losing strength and momentum in the medium-term time frame.
Bitcoin aims for $86,500
Mr. Zdunczyk emphasizes market sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index is 65, indicating the greedy state of market participants. Analysts note that the current stage of the market cycle is characterized by belief.
Additionally, miners are still making profits at prices above $41,800, and prices will skyrocket as mining difficulty increases after the halving. It is expected.
In particular, past halving events have caused significant price increases, with Bitcoin experiencing massive increases of 90x, 30x, and 7x. Importantly, Bitcoin has never halved in price after these rallies.
Looking at seasonal trends, the monthly opening price for April was $71,000, suggesting a positive outlook for the month. The average increase in April is estimated at 21.95%, with a goal of $86,500 at the end of the month, Zdunczyk said.
Additionally, the period from April 16th to 30th has historically seen an average gain of 14.69%, further strengthening. positive expectations And the price of BTC will rise even more in the coming weeks. Zdunczyk said this period could attract investors looking to buy on the spur of the moment.
Despite the overall positive outlook, BTC is trading at $62,600, reflecting a consistent decline over the past month. Over the past 30 days, BTC has fallen 9% from its mid-March all-time high of $73,700.
Additionally, on its way to new highs and crossing the $80,000 threshold, BTC encountered a major hurdle at the $70,000 level.Despite surpassing all-time highs, BTC has struggled to break above this level for years one week.
Nevertheless, as Zdunczyk highlighted, potential synergies between the success of the US ETF market and the upcoming halving event could hold the key to reinvigorating BTC's price trajectory. .
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
