- Final approval of the ETH ETF's S-1 could come within two to three months, analysts said.
- If so, will Grayscale ETH Trust bleed like GBTC?
After the spot green light Ethereum [ETH] Following the ETF's 19b-4s filing, market observers have been vaguely speculating on the timeline for final approval of the S-1 by the SEC.
Now, Nate Geracci, policy and market watcher at ETF Store, predicts that approval of the S-1 could happen within the next two to three months.
“When will the SEC approve the spot ETF registration statement? No one knows for sure, but my guess is within the next few weeks, two to three months at most.”
Geraci accurately predicted that the SEC would approve the 19b-4 (exchange filing) and then delay the S-1 when most of the market was expecting a rejection by the SEC on May 23rd.
Therefore, his predictions cannot simply be dismissed or ignored.
The analyst added that “following the launch of the spot BTC ETF and Ethereum futures ETF, the heavy lifting has already been done.”
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas Echoed Djerassi predicted July as a possible date for approval.
“Feels like a good Fourth of July over/under.”
Ethereum ETG: Will Grayscale Be Exfiltrated Again?
If confirmed, market observers will be keeping a close eye on Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) to see if it follows GBTC’s trend in outflows after spot trading. Bitcoin [BTC] The ETF will be approved in January.
According to a recent Kaiko Insights report, GBTC recorded outflows of $6.5 billion in January alone.
If this trend continues with Grayscale’s ETHE, further exodus is likely to occur as more disgruntled investors redeem their shares.
Kaiko estimates that ETHE, which currently has $11 billion in AUM (assets under management), could see outflows reach an average of $110 million per day if it follows GBTC's trend. read,
“If ETHE outflows were of a similar scale, that would amount to an average daily outflow of $110 million, or 30% of the average daily ETH trading volume on Coinbase.”
However, crypto analyst James Van Straten previously downplayed the possibility of a major exodus from ETHE, saying: stated Grayscale’s Low Fee MiniTrust ($ETH) Could Prevent Outflows
“If $ETHE has a similar outflow as $GBTC, I would be neutral on the outflow. A mini trust $ETH could be launched at the same time with lower fees and investors wouldn’t have to do anything, something that wasn’t available with $GBTC.”
Meanwhile, ETH has exhibited a bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hourly chart, which means that while the price is making new higher highs, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is making new lower lows.
Such a divergence usually leads to a drop in prices.
ETH/USDT. Source: TradingView
ETH may rally back to the moving average (50-day EMA, blue) around $3.68K or previous domicile cum support around $3.6K (marked in cyan) and then bounce back to the resistance zone and daily bearish order block at $4K (marked in red).
