Bitcoin’s price performance over the past decade or so has been dominated by bearish and bullish cycles.
Generally, the BTC halving is seen as the trigger for the start of a bull market, but the past two years preceding each such event have been dominated by the bears.
current cycle
However, this was not the case in the ongoing case that began in mid-2023 and was initially fueled by hype surrounding the possible approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. Once these products become a reality in early 2024, wealth will hit a new all-time high in 2021, hitting a new chart of around $74,000. This is the first time that a new peak has been recorded before the half-life.
The reason behind this is that once these products see the light of day, the companies that launched them are some of the biggest in the world, such as Blackrock and Fidelity, meaning that BTC has become a legitimate investment asset. about it.
Despite a surge in inflows in the first few months and a somewhat flattening of demand over the past few weeks, the price of BTC has risen significantly and is still in the $60,000-$70,000 range.
Furthermore, it is rumored that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later this year, which is typically seen as a bullish development for risky assets like BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
Last but not least, the halving did indeed happen a month ago. Although most experts argue that the effectiveness of each block's reward reduction is decreasing over time, the truth is that the production of new BTC has been decreasing and is currently around It has decreased to 450BTC. This is much lower than the average accumulation rate by ETFs, whales, and individual investors.
When will it end?
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, claimed that BTC is currently in the middle of an ongoing bullish cycle. He outlined a graph showing that Bitcoin's actual market cap is “growing faster than the real market cap,” which is a market cap that values each UTXO at the last price it moved. This is a variation of
Trends like this typically last two years, meaning the ongoing bull market will end within the next 11 months.
