Upcoming events:
- Monday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Central Bank Economic Outlook Survey.
- Tuesday: RBAMinetes, Swiss Retail Sales, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, German Inflation Data, US Jobs.
- Wednesday: China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone CPI and Unemployment Rate, US ADP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI.
- Thursday: Swiss CPI, Eurozone PPI, US Challenger Job Cuts, US Unemployment Insurance Claims.
- Friday: Eurozone retail sales, Canadian employment statistics, US NFP.
Monday
US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.4 versus 47.8 previously. The recent S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI beat expectations for a third straight month of gains, highlighting a rebound in manufacturing sector activity in the first quarter of 2024. While the report's commentary was generally positive, there were some worrying signs on the inflation side. “Inflationary pressures accelerated again in March due to sharp increases in costs and increased pricing power from the recent improvement in demand. Overall selling price inflation for services has reached its highest level in almost a year.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday
U.S. job openings are expected to be 8.79 million, compared to 8.863 million previously. This is the first major US labor market report of the week, and although it's old (February data), it's generally a market-moving announcement. The previous report failed to include a negative revision to the previous reading, underscoring the weak but resilient labor market. The market will also note that hiring and retirement rates are below pre-pandemic trends.
US job information
Wednesday
Eurozone CPI year-on-year change is expected to be 2.6% y-o-y, with core y-o-y growth expected to be 3.0% y-o-y, 3.1% y-o-y. The market has fully priced in the first rate cut in June, and given the consensus within the ECB, it may take a big miss in the data to see if the market has priced in an April rate cut. is high. Last Friday's French CPI data was missed, so German data is expected the day before, which should provide guidance for euro area CPI forecasts. We will also see the latest unemployment rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at a record low of 6.4%.
Eurozone Core CPI YoY
US ISM Services PMI is expected to be 52.6 vs. 52.6 previously. The recent S&P Global U.S. Services PMI was slightly lower than expected, falling to a three-month low, but the commentary in the report was generally positive. But service providers are also becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook, with confidence hitting a 22-month high in March. ” The most important data to look at will be the price and employment sub-indices.
US ISM Service PMI
Thursday
Swiss CPI YoY is expected to be 1.4% y-o-y, 1.2% y-o-y, and m-o-m is expected to be 0.3% y-o-y, 0.6% y-o-y. As a reminder, the Swiss National Bank announced a 25bps rate at its March meeting, given that inflation has been steadily easing and interest rates have been well within the 0-2% target since last summer. decided to cut interest rates. If the data eases further, the market will fully price in another rate cut in June, up from the current 60% probability.
Swiss CPI YoY
The number of U.S. unemployment claims continues to be one of the most important announcements each week because it is a timely indicator of the state of the labor market. This is because a weakening labor market increases the likelihood of disinflation toward the Fed's goal. However, given the resilience of the labor market, achieving this goal will become more difficult. Initial claims continue to hover near cycle lows, while ongoing claims remain solid near the 1,800,000 level. Although there is no consensus as of this writing, the number of first-time claims exceeded expectations last week at 212,000, compared to the expected 212,000, and the number of continuing claims exceeded the previous positive revision. This is a slight increase from 1,790,000 to 1,820,000.
U.S. unemployment insurance claims
Friday
The US NFP report expects 200,000 jobs to be added in March, compared to 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.9%. The year-over-year change in average hourly earnings is expected to be 4.1% vs. 4.3% prior, while the month-over-month reading is expected to be 0.3% vs. 0.1% prior. Given the strong unemployment claims and current conditions index, general expectations for this report are positive and are likely to be further strengthened by the employment component of the ISM PMI. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said an “unexpected” weakening in the labor market could warrant a policy response, but that would likely require invoking the therm rule, which would require the unemployment rate to He said it needs to rise to 4.4%.
US unemployment rate
Canada's Labor Market Report predicts 25,000 jobs will be added in March compared to 47,000 in February, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.9% from 5.8%. . The market will pay particular attention to wage growth data, as that is what central banks are most concerned about.
canada unemployment rate
