According to a new research report released on April 3, VanEck believes the market capitalization of Ethereum's Layer 2 protocol will reach a total of $1 trillion by 2030.
This prediction was revealed in an in-depth analysis led by VanEck senior investment analyst Patrick Busch and head of digital research Matthew Siegel.
VanEck's prediction that Ethereum Layer 2 will have a market capitalization of $1 trillion by 2030 reflects his belief in the technology's potential to significantly improve the scalability and efficiency of blockchain, and is expected to increase the market capitalization of digital assets. and the underlying technology landscape.
Solving scalability
The investment firm's analysis evaluated the burgeoning Layer 2 ecosystem across several key dimensions, including transaction price, developer experience, user experience, trust assumptions, and ecosystem size.
According to the report, Layer 2 technologies, specifically optimistic rollups and zero-knowledge rollups, are solving Ethereum's biggest challenge: scalability.
These solutions aim to expand Ethereum's transaction processing capabilities without compromising its core properties of security and decentralization. The analysis cited his EIP-4844 upgrade as a key development, introducing “Blob Space” to significantly reduce data posting costs, thereby bringing economic benefits to Layer 2 operations. .
According to the report, the cost savings enabled by EIP-4844 are critical to improving Layer 2 profit margins.
This report also explores the revenue model for Layer 2 solutions, highlighting transaction sequences as the primary source of revenue. We investigated both on-chain and off-chain cost structures, with a particular focus on the expensive proof mechanisms employed by zero-knowledge rollups.
TVL
In assessing the competitive landscape, the study predicts that by 2030, Layer 2 will account for a significant portion of the transaction value and total value locked (TVL) within the Ethereum ecosystem.
Part of this growth is due to the maximum extractable value (MEV) potential to increase layer 2 revenue. VanEck's analysis hints at a future where layer 2 platforms could provide a competitive advantage over Ethereum in certain market segments.
However, this report maintains a neutral tone regarding the speculative nature of the crypto market and the uncertain future of layer 2 token valuations. This is expected to result in the emergence of many use case-specific Layer 2 rollups, demonstrating the widespread application of blockchain technology beyond finance to areas such as gaming, social media, and infrastructure.
VanEck’s analysis presents a fascinating vision of the future, where Ethereum Layer 2 evolves from a nascent technology to a central cog in the global blockchain ecosystem.
