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moon signal
It is often said that the stock market is like astrology for people in the financial world.
If so, mapping politics to markets must be akin to crystal healing or animal magnetism.
Don't let anything stop you from having a good time.
Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump is scheduled to appear on stage at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville later this week.
This is set to be a landmark event for Bitcoin and the broader crypto space. This is not the first known instance of a former US president attending an industry event. President Bill Clinton received the honor alongside former British Prime Minister Tony Blair at Sam Bankman Freed's Crypto Bahamas Conference in April 2022.
Terra collapsed a few weeks later, and FTX collapsed six months later, largely under the weight of the Bankman Freed fraud. Almost 700 days after the Bahamas incident, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison.
President Trump’s arrival on Bitcoin in 2024 bodes well for cryptocurrencies.
And there are many who believe it will. President Trump's positive attitude toward Silicon Valley is similar, and the general consensus is that there will be more room for a tech-heavy stock market under the second Trump administration.
And while the Nasdaq has decoupled from Bitcoin over the past three weeks, what's good for tech stocks is still considered pretty good for cryptocurrencies.
Now let's take a look at the political palm of virtual currency. Over the past 30 years, five different administrations have directed American politics. Two of them are Republicans (Bush and Trump) and three are Democrats (Clinton, Obama, Biden).
The market struggled under the Bush administration. He emerged just as the dot-com bubble burst at the turn of the millennium, and quickly drew the United States into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, both of which lasted 20 years.
The S&P 500 fell more than 20% in the four months following President Obama's victory in November 2008. But since then, stocks have mostly trended upward, despite some hiccups (like the coronavirus crash), a period that includes both the Trump and Biden presidencies. It lasted eight months in 2022, and the S&P also returned more than 20%.
Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first Bitcoin block less than three weeks before President Obama first took office. The currency Bitcoin exploded by nearly 80 million percent during his two terms in office, alongside the issuance of thousands of cryptocurrencies, including Ether.
Were Obama and the Democrats responsible for all the creation of crypto assets? With the Full Moon in Capricorn this time of year, aren't you feeling particularly down today? Who's to say?
In fact, it was under the Trump administration that “virtual currencies” became mainstream. Bitcoin’s $20,000 all-time high, Ethereum’s ICO boom, and DeFi Summer all happened while Trump was in the White House.
The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose from $1 trillion to $3 trillion in the first year of the Biden administration. However, the second event was marred by a series of cryptocurrency debacles, the largest of which is shown by the dotted line in the chart above.
And even though Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, the rest of the crypto market has yet to return to its 2021 peak.
Bulls will say President Trump's second term could change everything. But with Mercury going retrograde a few weeks after the November election, there's no telling what's going to happen.
— David Kanellis
data center
- BTC and Ethereum After the S&P 500 recorded its worst day since 2022, it fell 3.7% and 8.5%, respectively (BTC: $64,000, ETH: $3,180).
- TRX is the only top 100 cryptocurrency still in the green over the past day, rising 1.3%.
- LDO and the newly formed AI Super Token ASI (Currently still traded) FET) have been the hardest hit over the past week, dropping 20% and 17% respectively.
- I saw ETH ETF Net amount: $133.3 million spill Wednesday was the second day of trading, and the cumulative total was -$26.7 million.
- Weekly NFT sales volume for Ethereum and Solana is 16.5% and 19% increase. Ethereum leads with $34 million, ahead of Solana with $28.25 million. Bitcoin hit a record $18.8 million.
times are changing
What a turntable.
This is one way to think about former President Donald Trump's changing stance on cryptocurrencies.
In the last election, Trump was adamantly anti-cryptocurrency. He even tweeted (at the time journalists including myself were covering his post) that he was not a “fan” of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
“Unregulated cryptoassets can facilitate illegal activities, including drug trafficking and other illegal activities,” he said at the time. In retrospect, it seems like something that Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) would say, given her staunchly anti-crypto stance.
President Trump even went after Facebook's (pre-Meta) now-defunct Libra stablecoin project, claiming it needed banking approval.
One might wonder how he would approach such projects, given his support for the cryptocurrency industry this election.
I feel it is important to note that President Trump has not announced any actual policy regarding cryptocurrencies. But similarly, we have yet to see or hear anything about the industry from Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. Unlike Trump and Robert Kennedy Jr., her campaign declined an offer to appear on Bitcoin 2024.
But Trump has already made strides, not only by hosting events and appearing with crypto figures, but also by becoming the first major party candidate to accept crypto donations to his campaign earlier this year. has been achieved.
And looking back at Bitcoin's price over the years, there's a far-fetched argument that in some ways President Trump has always been Bitcoin-friendly — even when he was staunchly anti-crypto. –.
Take 2016, for example. After President Trump's victory, Bitcoin rose to over $730. In fact, it was one of the few sectors that actually benefited from the 2016 election victory. Futures on all of Wall Street's major indexes sold off pretty suddenly. And thus began Bitcoin’s journey as a safe-haven asset… So without further ado, let’s get back to Trump.
Trump continued his vocal anti-cryptocurrency approach in 2021. He said Bitcoin “looks like a scam.” Later that year, he added that crypto investing “could be a disaster.”
To be fair, he might not have been completely wrong on that point, given that Terra's algorithmic stablecoin depegging and the crap show called FTX were on the horizon. But sadly, no one had a crystal ball to see exactly what was in store for the industry.
I think I got my point across. There is a very detailed history of President Trump favoring the US dollar over cryptocurrencies. But something changed this cycle.
Oh, and given the shift in narrative, I'd love to be a fly on the wall (and a time traveler to boot) to hear the conversations the Trump campaign had this year around cryptocurrencies.
— Katherine Ross
the work
- Galaxy Asset ManagementAccording to Bloomberg, Michael Novogratz's company has raised $113 million for a new cryptocurrency fund.
- CB Payments Ltd, linked payment processors coinbasewas fined more than $4 million by the British government.
- hash dex It is the first US country to apply for S-1 for an ETF that holds both Ether and Bitcoin.
- Bitstamp announces start of distribution mount gox Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash on Thursday.
- Rumelin's Decentralized AI project Morpheous has gone live on the Arbitrum Test Network, CoinDesk reported.
The Riff
Are virtual currencies mainly developed in the United States?
I think there's a tendency for that in the story, but maybe not in the ecosystem as a whole.
The United States is like one of the high school kids' favorites when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Everyone is chatting about them, and even though they're not the only ones innovating and creating, they tend to suck up a lot of the air in the room.
I wouldn't be surprised if this trend continues until more friendly regulators emerge, or if this trend simply continues. regulationwill be voted on.
Projects, founders, and venture capitalists want the U.S. to become the epicenter of cryptocurrencies, even in the current environment. So it's no surprise that the US tends to dominate the conversation. However, many people are staying away from the United States out of fear.
I think this is a test of patience. How long can cryptocurrencies endure as they seek to establish a US-based hub?
— katherine ross
The US cryptocurrency sector is undoubtedly a major force. American technology is to the world's technology sector.
But it really depends on what part of the “cipher” you are talking about. Tether, which operates the largest stablecoin to date, is not a US company. The same is not true for Binance, the largest exchange by trading volume.
The entities behind some of the largest DeFi protocols, Lido and Aave, are also not registered in the US.
Some might say that a hostile SEC is forcing regulatory arbitrage. That's probably true.
But if offshore companies can keep the cryptocurrency industry spinning for years despite all the pressure from three-letter agencies, perhaps the US is not the center of the blockchain industry after all. It might be.
— David Kanellis
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