Bankers: The European Commission's forecasts point to a soft landing for the economy. – GDP: +0.8% in 2024 vs. +0.8% in 2025, +1.4% vs. +1.5% in 2025. CPI: +2.5% vs. +2.7% respectively +2.1%, previously +2.2%.
Analysis: After downwardly revising euro area growth in its February report, the EC maintained its 2024 forecast and slightly revised its 2025 forecast downward. The agency says the economy will continue to weaken, with momentum expected to pick up in 2025. On the inflation front, there has been a downward revision in both periods, with the European Commission estimating that the price level will move closer to the 2% target in 2025. In fact, the scenario envisioned by the EC is one of a soft landing for the economy. However, the document identifies several domestic and external risks. On the domestic front, the EU executive body cited monetary policy, member state debt and deficits (estimated budget deficits at -3.0% and -2.8% in 2024 and 2025), savings trends and the climate emergency as the main barriers. ing. On the external front, geopolitical tensions and US monetary policy have emerged as key sources of uncertainty.
On the other hand, the first revision of the Eurozone's GDP for the first quarter of 2024 confirms the acceleration of the business cycle recorded in the preliminary figures, with the first revision of the GDP for the first quarter of 2024 (first revision): +0.4% YoY, preliminary figures. value +0.4%, +0.1% in Q4 2023.
Rating: Good data for the economy and markets. However, the impact will be limited as it only confirms the numbers known from preliminary research. The economy gained momentum in the first quarter of this year, with European macro data showing signs of improvement again. The market is currently awaiting the next ECB Governing Council meeting (June 6), when the central bank is expected to implement its first interest rate cut.
