Bitcoin mining, electric vehicles, new artificial intelligence data centers, and heavy industry's transition from combustion to electric engines may require the state to nearly double its electricity supply over the next decade. At least that's according to a late April update from ERCOT leaders.
The stakes are high, with memories of the deadly power outages during the 2021 winter storm still fresh in the minds of Texans. Last summer, ERCOT issued a historic amount of weather watches urging people to conserve energy as grid maintenance became strained during scorching hot days.
All this at a time when Texas is investing billions of dollars in building new natural gas plants and receiving policies and resources from Washington, D.C., to move its economy toward a greener, cleaner future. is happening. While debate continues as to whether the transition is too soon or too late, experts told Lone Star Politics that this is the first time in decades there has been such a major shift in the energy market.
Due to the large increase in energy users, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has revised its forecast upward by 37% from last year.
At the last board meeting, CEO Pablo Vegas explained what will happen in the next few years and how ERCOT is preparing.
“All the tools and parts are here to be able to respond quickly. ERCOT has all the resource capabilities to do that. It's important to enact the resources here to get the engine running and develop. ” Vegas said. .
Power demand will increase from 111 gigawatts per hour to 152 gigawatts per hour, he said at a “New Era of Planning” presentation in Las Vegas. In August 2023, Texas set a demand record of 85.8 gigawatts per hour.
Texas already has a fairly diverse power source. The ERCOT dashboard shows how much electricity the state gets from wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear, and coal each day. ERCOT leaders and energy experts say the state needs to do more.
State solutions are coming online. Last year, Texas voters approved a $10 billion Texas Energy Fund that provides grants and low-interest loans to help build “dispatchable” power, such as natural gas power plants. The state's Public Utilities Commission just finalized the program's rules and will begin accepting applications. The aim is to increase the amount of electricity supplied during times when renewable energy is less effective, such as at night when the wind is not blowing.
Companies can receive about 10% rebates if they complete their factories by summer 2026.
The fund was a goal of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who spoke at the Texas Public Policy Foundation earlier this year.
“We've built too much wind and solar power at the expense of natural gas. So on a cold winter night, there's a storm, no wind, no sun. “We didn't have enough power and people died in that storm,” Patrick said, adding, “I made a promise to myself, and the senators stood together. We will make sure this never happens again.”
He noted that the 2021 PUC and ERCOT members have changed.
“We need more natural gas,” Patrick said.
Mark Bell of the Texas Electric Power Companies Association, which represents NRG, Oncor and other large energy companies, said both companies are “working diligently and trying to build the infrastructure needed to support that kind of growth.” .
Lone Star Politics asked Bell if the new Texas Energy Fund would be enough to get the number of power plants the state needs.
“Well, it's a tool in the toolbox. That portal launched this week and we're very hopeful that it will be flooded with registrations, which is great,” Bell said.
Bell said the biggest challenge will be over the next one to seven years, as large, energy-intensive data centers and industrial projects are built faster than new natural gas plants. ing.
“It's going to take some time to bring these projects online. You know, data centers and other consumption, large consumption projects are coming online, and they could be online within a year. And, you know, it usually takes a while.'' We, you know, power transmission, power distribution, power transmission, especially large scale projects, from one to two years to five, six years. It takes a long time,” Bell said.
“Everyone is doing their best, and I think we know that in the long run, that's enough,” he said.
Lone Star Politics asked Bell how the industry feels about the company's efforts to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. He wasn't against it. They just need more power.
“We have all of the above, which means we need it all,” Bell said.
Ed Anderson, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin, specializes in energy supply chains. He told Lone Star Politics that Texas will be in a vulnerable situation with its energy supply for years to come, but that consumers will be helped.
“As you know, we are reaching the limits of what the grid can handle,” Professor Anderson said. “Typically the worst time of the year is summer… everyone gets equally hot in the summer, and power lines get hot too.” They can't transfer as much power. ”
Anderson says it's a “huge problem” as new electric vehicles connect to the grid and heavy industry in the Permian Basin adds more electrical equipment.
This change is happening all at once, he says. “Honestly, other projections, like doubling, are going to be lower or much higher. So one of the things that ERCOT has to manage is that we have to take it step by step. That's because conservatives don't know what's going to happen. ”
Anderson says Texans certainly should be concerned about the resiliency and stability of their power grid as we head into the hot summer. He said consumers can still do basic things like turn off their air conditioners and other appliances even when they're not at home. He points out that purchasing a programmable thermostat and a modern air conditioner can help the power grid and also save money on your daily utility bills.
“It's mostly outside of our heads,” Anderson said, but “if everyone works together,” the Texans could help stabilize the grid.
Amazing updates from ERCOT and solutions on the way. NBC 5's Phil Prazan and the Dallas Morning News' Gromar Jeffers speak with industry experts about the Texas power grid.
