While there is still uncertainty regarding the actual listing date of the spot Ethereum ETF on U.S. stock exchanges, a listing by the end of this month seems increasingly likely.
In fact, many experts and analysts expect the final landing to happen as early as next week, or in any case within the next two weeks.
Galaxy Digital Ethereum ETF approval is imminent
Yesterday, Bloomberg interviewed Steve Kurtz, head of asset management for the Galaxy Digital Ethereum ETF, who said that it is very likely that a Spot Ethereum ETF will be officially approved by the SEC sometime this coming July.
According to Kurz, the request is currently in the “show” stage.
Experts at Galaxy Digital pointed out that the SEC has done this before and that this is a way to whitewash the proceedings, even though it is nearly the same product that was already approved for Bitcoin in January.
Notably, Galaxy Digital is one of eight companies that have filed with the SEC to issue a spot Ethereum ETF, along with BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, Fidelity, iShares, Grayscale and 21Shares.
The companies are already approved to list shares of their ETFs on ETH on the stock exchange, but they still need to get their S-1 forms approved before they can actually go public and be traded.
A showy decoration
In finance, “window dressing” refers to the act of embellishing a portfolio or balance sheet by selecting or changing certain information in order to make it look more attractive or to improve its performance.
For example, in the case of an investment portfolio, positions are carefully selected and presented so that the portfolio is more diversified or offers better returns.
Obviously, this is considered a deceptive practice, or at least not very transparent, because it creates false expectations and presents a distorted image.
In this particular case, the SEC needs to present these ETFs in some way as a positive, given their longstanding opposition to both Ethereum and cryptocurrency ETFs.
Last year, a court ruling forced the SEC to approve a Bitcoin ETF spot, after the SEC had always previously made the mistake of rejecting them.
But this year, given that it is still a government agency and it is a presidential election year, it is more likely that the order came from on high, as the obvious candidate seeking reelection (Joe Biden) wanted to avoid provoking investors and the markets.
Thus, in this particular case, window dressing may not have been entirely misleading, even if it would have required making formal changes to the request to make it appear more consistent with the SEC's expectations.
Ethereum ETF to be listed on US stock exchange
In the case of the Spot Bitcoin ETF, the actual listing took place the day after approval.
For the Spot Ethereum ETF, the application has only been approved, but the process is not yet complete. The applicants have already submitted their final S-1 forms, which still need to be approved by the SEC.
Tomorrow is the 4th of July, a national holiday in the United States.
The SEC is unlikely to meet on Friday for final approval, in part because the pretense stage must be completed before then.
Final approval was expected to arrive on Monday, but as things stand, it may be too much even if it arrives next week.
What is certain, however, is that once final overall approval is received, issuers will be racing to list their ETFs on the stock exchange as soon as possible, meaning listing should take place the day after final approval.
prediction
In reality, the main uncertainty concerns the potential success of these new financial instruments on U.S. stock exchanges.
In the case of Bitcoin in January, the success was huge, with the price of BTC rising from $45,000 to over $70,000.
Instead, a much more moderate success is expected in the case of Ethereum, but honestly, the market seems skeptical about whether these ETFs will really be properly successful in the ETH spot.
The ETH options market is currently showing positive views regarding the launch of mid-term/short-term ETFs, just as it has done for Bitcoin, but the Ethereum spot market is not showing any bullish signs at the moment.
This creates a contradiction where, on the one hand, the spot market seems less optimistic, while on the other hand, the derivatives market seems more optimistic.
The only thing that is certain is that there are no signs of true, proper happiness.
At this point, we can imagine something similar to what happened in January when the new spot BTC ETF actually debuted on the stock market, i.e. it would drop in the weeks immediately following, only to recover in less than 30 days.
sales
The problem is that once it actually lists on the stock market, there could be two waves of selling.
The first are the classic news peddlers, who, taking into account that the news of the confirmation is not yet 100% certain, then buy the rumors.
The second, and much more risky, is the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, which, like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, could be forced to liquidate a large portion of its underlying assets (ETH) if it is converted into an ETF and listed on a stock exchange.
In January, the move lasted less than two weeks, as other ETFs then began buying more BTC than Grayscale was liquidating.
Therefore, if the Spot Ethereum ETF is listed on the actual stock exchange around mid-July, it is possible that the price of ETH will fall until the end of the month before rebounding in August.
