Alex Thorne, head of research at Galaxy Digital, shared a “policy scorecard” based on US presidential candidates’ stances on the crypto industry.
The card suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris wins election Downside risks to the industry are limited, which would be more favorable than the current Biden administration. However, former US president and candidate Donald Trump has shown the most positive approach towards cryptocurrencies.
Analysts at Galaxy Research are “optimistic” that actions so far suggest Harris' term in office could be friendlier than that of U.S. President Joe Biden.
Big differences between taxes and Bitcoin mining policy
The major differences between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump regarding cryptocurrencies surface on four of the seven issues: taxes, Bitcoin mining, self-custody, and banking regulation.
On taxes, Galaxy analysts described Harris' campaign as “extremely hostile,” citing her promise to roll back Trump's tax cuts for wealthy Americans. In contrast, Trump is expected to provide greater clarity on digital asset tax policy.
Bitcoin mining policy presents a similar contrast. Biden has proposed a 30% tax on mining, but Harris has been more generous on the campaign trail. The scorecard rates her position as “slightly better” than Biden's, but still somewhat hostile.
Trump, on the other hand, is seen to be very supportive of Bitcoin mining, as he has met with miners and received donations from them. He has also publicly stated that he considers mining to be part of “domestic manufacturing.”
Harris and Trump also have major differences in banking policy. Behind-the-scenes discussions suggest that Harris may acknowledge the need for the crypto industry to have access to banks, potentially softening Biden's “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.”
However, President Trump has promised to end Operation Chokepoint 2.0 completely and allow national banks to engage in blockchain, and is seen as “very cooperative.” He has also expressed strong opposition to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
When it comes to self-custody, Harris and Trump's policies are relatively similar. Harris has not spoken directly on the issue, but some of her campaign advisers have been hostile to the issue in the past. During a Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Trump vowed to protect self-custody rights and is “somewhat supportive.”
Galaxy's analysis is based on public statements and reports from sources close to both campaigns.
Bitcoin is likely to be unaffected, but altcoins may soar
Bitcoin (BTC) has not been specifically included in most regulatory discussions on Scorecard, suggesting it will be unaffected by whether Harris or Trump wins next month's election. However, the outlook for altcoins is even more divided.
While a Trump victory could bring the regulatory clarity needed for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin, a Harris administration could pose risks to these assets. Tokens like Uniswap’s UNI will benefit if President Trump introduces much-needed regulatory reforms to the U.S. cryptocurrency industry.
Trump's inauguration as president has the potential for an “explosive upside” for the cryptocurrency industry, but Galaxy's head of research believes the downside risk from a Harris victory is “limited.” He said that his position is generally better than that of Biden.
