Prediction: Bitcoin will hit $80,000 in 2024

I know, you probably expected me to set a higher price target. Bitcoin (BTC -1.29%)After all, everyone is doing it.

• Tom Lee, partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, sees a “baseline scenario” of $150,000 per coin in 2024.
• UK Money Centre Bank Analyst Standard Chartered The firm recently said it agreed with Fundstrat's $150,000 forecast and expects it to rise further to $250,000 next year.
• Ark Invest's Cathie Wood predicted Bitcoin would hit $600,000 in 2024, with a target of $1.5 million by 2030. While she hasn't updated her short-term targets recently, her 2030 target now stands at $3.8 million per Bitcoin.

To be fair, I myself have a Bitcoin price target of $150,000, but not this year. I expect that milestone to be reached in 2025 or 2026. Bitcoin's four-year price rally suggests another dramatic price increase will occur after the mining reward halving in April, but don't expect that rally to happen anytime soon.

Bitcoin price fluctuations after halvings 1, 2, and 3

First of all, a clear pattern can be seen on Bitcoin's post-halving price chart.

1. Between the summer of 2012 and the fall of 2013, the price of Bitcoin increased significantly. On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin underwent its first halving, bringing the price per coin to approximately $12. By late November 2013, Bitcoin's price had peaked at approximately $1,100 during its first halving cycle.
2. The second halving occurred on July 9, 2016, when the price of Bitcoin was around $650. By December 2017, the price had risen to nearly $20,000, before falling to around $6,500 by April 2018. This was the peak period of the second Bitcoin halving.
3. On May 11, 2020, when Bitcoin's third halving occurred and the world was first beginning to deal with the effects of COVID-19, the price was around $9,000. By November 2021, Bitcoin's price had reached an all-time high of around $69,000, reflecting growing institutional interest and widespread adoption.

See a pattern? Previous halvings have seen impressive price increases, but always followed by significant delays. Here's how long it took for Bitcoin to reach the peak of each halving cycle, counting from the date of the mining reward reduction:

1. 1 year 1 day
2. 1 year, 5 months, 8 days
3. 1 year, 5 months, 30 days

From this perspective, it stands to reason that prices will peak again after the fourth halving, but not sooner than spring 2025. Anything sooner would lead to a much faster post-halving market reaction.

Why Bitcoin halvings are different every time

Of course, every halving event is different. The first halving event in 2012 broke new ground in completely uncharted territory. Four years later, investors and Bitcoin miners were unsure whether a halving cycle would trigger a similar market reaction twice. In 2020, COVID-19 disrupted plans, but the same old patterns have replayed in different ways.

Now in 2024, we are waiting to find out exactly what the next cycle will be. Various theories have been proposed and explored, but only time will tell the answer.

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has caused Bitcoin prices to spike in the months leading up to this halving. Will the leading cryptocurrency simply follow its previous pattern from a higher starting point, or will the expected surge after the halving be undermined by the higher starting price?

As for the exact shape of Bitcoin's future price chart, both you and I can only speculate. Historical patterns suggest a slow decline in 2024 followed by a sharp rise in early 2025. While the real world doesn't always conform to previous patterns, the market has formed a fairly consistent set of reactions to Bitcoin's halving cycles.

Image source: Getty Images.

What to expect from Bitcoin in the coming years

I am not a fan of technical analysis. Unexpected events can kill momentum or propel some stocks to new highs without warning. That is why I am hesitant to give a specific price target for Bitcoin at the end of 2024. Historical chart curves quickly lose meaning when faced with real-world surprises.

But the long-term uptrend is undeniable and is underpinned by the pure mathematics of Bitcoin’s inner workings. So, whether regulators help or hinder it, the cryptocurrency is due for a modest upswing as the post-halving economics unfold before our eyes. A 15% rise to $80,000 seems entirely reasonable, followed by the usual post-halving surge next year.

Don't expect the coin to skyrocket in 2024, but it wouldn't hurt to build a long-term position in Bitcoin to take advantage of the fourth halving spike, followed by a fifth in 2028 and a sixth in 2032.

The real wealth in Bitcoin will belong to long-term investors who have a strong sense of patience and a willingness to buy more Bitcoin on the inevitable dips along the way.