Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model creator and analyst Plan B has identified a level below which he believes Bitcoin (BTC) will never fall below again.
According to a controversial analyst tweet, it is “very unlikely” that Bitcoin will fall below $33,000, which is also its 200-week moving average. This prediction holds true for the post-halving downturn and subsequent bear market.
Bitcoin expected to exceed $33,000
PlanB's latest analysis differs from his prediction in early February. At the time, he said BTC may never fall below its five-month realized price of $40,000.
Bitcoin had just recovered from losses incurred by investors who sold the news after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The cryptocurrency has reached $45,000, and Plan B said it may not see another plunge to sub-$40,000 levels.
To prove his point, the analyst outlined Bitcoin's realized price on various scales. The realized prices for the two years and five months are $32,000 and $40,000, respectively, for an overall price of $23,000. The asset was unlikely to fall below $40,000, as Bitcoin's appreciation outpaced all realized prices.
However, due to changing on-chain dynamics and the continuation of the bull market, Plan B changed its prediction and stated that BTC will not fall below $33,000. The overall realized price increased to $29,000, and the two-year and five-month realized prices also increased to $44,000 and $60,000, respectively. He identified the two-year and five-month realized price as a conservative and aggressive lower bound, below which Bitcoin will not fall in a bull market.
Bitcoin's line of no return
In some ways, PlanB's predictions are in line with pattern analyst Trader Allan's predictions. Alan tweeted in March that BTC would hit the “line of no return” this month. Trader Alan uses a chart showing the never-return line recorded in a previous cycle to show that BTC will never return to the level of $60,000, the 5-month realized price identified by PlanB. He explained.
Although PlanB's S2F analysis has been accurate several times, the model also has some failures and may be considered inaccurate by some community members. Still, we'll find out whether he's right in the coming months.
