- Monero price is facing rejection at the daily resistance level of $181.22.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) are indicating a bearish divergence for XMR.
- The bearish thesis will be invalidated if the daily close exceeds $181.22.
Monero (XMR) price has encountered resistance at a critical level, with momentum indicators pointing to a bearish divergence and the technical outlook suggesting a possible short-term correction.
Monero Price Tests Lows Again
Monero price failed to close above the daily resistance level of $181.22 on Thursday, leading to a short-term correction of around 5% from a daily high of $181.23 to a low of $171.40.
This price drop also fell below the ascending trend line that had previously acted as support, which was drawn by joining the three swing low points from June 8 to 13, as shown on the 4-hourly chart.
If the $181.22 daily level and the ascending trendline hold as resistance, Monero’s price could drop 3% from the trendline break at approximately $173.47 to the recent low of $167.14 on June 11th.
If the bears remain aggressive and the overall crypto market outlook remains negative, XMR can sink below $167.14, extend the 9% drop and retest the June 8 lows of $152.23.
The RSI and AO indicators support the bearish theory: the closing high formed on June 13 was not followed by a corresponding high in the RSI for the same period. This development is called a bearish divergence and often leads to a trend reversal and short-term price decline.
XMR/USDT 4-hour chart
However, if XMR’s daily candle closes above $181.22, a higher high will be generated on the daily time frame. Such a development would create a bullish market structure. This change in market structure would invalidate the bearish theory and propel XMR price up 5% to re-achieve the June 9 daily high of $190.17.
