I have been waiting for the OG coin alt season for over a year. Many of the top 10 or top 20 coins of 2015, 2017, and 2017 had significantly better performance compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and therefore needed to undergo an even longer cooling period than those cryptocurrencies. there was. Monero has fallen to #20 in coinmarketcap.com's rankings, and some of the coins I prefer trading and ideologically are much lower.
I got a little excited around February or March of 2022, but I didn't get the follow-through I was hoping for. Now that I've seen the reversal in the monthly parabolic SAR, I'm pretty optimistic that a high probability move to the upside is starting for Monero and my chosen alternatives. These have lower market caps, so you won't be able to build a position on them as easily as you would with the top 10 or 20 coins. A lot of core and slippage occurs when you enter a position too eagerly or carelessly. I can't sell into a margin position without creating a wick that immediately sinks me and ruins my margin level. But if I'm right, the benefits will be worth it.
Main analysis
Parabolic SAR is a very good indicator on higher time frames. It was literally named “Stop and Reverse” and was designed to find where the price could make a U-turn. Just like clearing the 200 SMA in a bear market is a sign, a SAR reversal is a sign if you expect it to happen in multiple months or years based on something (analysis, fundamentals, etc.) Helps clear technical resistance. That a bull market is brewing.
Another technical resistance that we cleared is the flag resistance line. We flew through very well and have been going sideways for about 10 days since the initial movement started. It is possible that the flag's previous resistance could be retested as support, but I think it is more likely that the price will move higher. Many of the biases of many traders should reverse to bullish on SAR. Bull season is still in its early stages and there are still many questions, but generally the bulls will win.
Other charts
Monthly charts for other times when Parabolic SAR has bullishly reversed look great when viewed on Heikin Ashi candlesticks. Looking at the HA chart, it seems that a large drop of 50-70% is no longer an issue. I'm so excited to be a part of this deal the first week it goes live.
Although parabolic SAR is typically used with some kind of momentum indicator, the inventors of parabolic SAR preferred another creation, ADX. Here's a simplified version. It looks promising.
The chart below shows the long-term SMA situation. Price is closing out for the next move between the 200 and 100 SMA. I think it will go up significantly.
My channel chart setup includes a Gaussian channel and a Keltner channel (1 and 2 ATR multipliers). Price is struggling at the Gaussian midline and I think we will see an upward resolution. This chart also shows the Keltner median line (if the 20 EMA is similar to his 2016 uptrend, it is a good place to buy this uptrend return).
Many people like to talk about price changes, but don't spend enough time talking about volume changes. One of the best indicators of volume is on-balance volume, and using some moving averages it's very easy to see when long-term buying and selling pressures are reversing. I am very optimistic that XMR's OBV SMA will bullishly reverse.
Volumes can vary between exchanges, so here is Binance as well
Where will the money come from?
Money has to come from somewhere to pump XMR and other OG coins that I like. I think it will be rotated out of the ETH ecosystem. Often, a W pattern will see the price rise to a double top or all-time high, and then the price will return to the rising trough. The chart below shows that both XMR and LTC have seen their prices return to the upswing at the trough.
Also, my linked ideas include my bearish post on NDX. I think the stock market will be wild here soon as prices fall deeper.
my plan
I would like to add to my position with a simple pullback strategy. If both Log MACD and Stoch are below zero, we know that there has just been a pullback, and that pullback will generate support and resistance lines. Consider buying when the price rises above its resistance line again and gains momentum. This allows me to buy less and it's always nice to see prices keep going down. I don't buy bottoms though.
I don't like the idea of buying something and having it cost the same six months or a year later. It is much better to buy a pullback and watch the price go out of the hole and not come back.
I plan to do this for many OG coins, many of which are currently obscured. Zcash and Dash are from the 70s and 90s. Market capitalization is very low. XPR, BCH, and others are still quite large, but less exciting, but will likely be bought on the rebound as well.
XMR also topped for more than 200 days before Total 2 recorded in this last uptrend. Once XMR achieves its primary goal, you must prepare to rotate from XMR to other coins.
