Market veteran Benjamin Cowen highlighted Ethereum’s cyclical collapse pattern in 2016 and 2019, and predicts a repeat of it in the fourth quarter of 2024.
He recently shared Ethereum's ETH/USD monthly candlestick showing a similar movement and its breakdown against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) A third incident occurred in 2016 and 2019 under similar circumstances.
At the end of the day, the question remains whether ETH/USD will fall further in line with history.
Past ETH/BTC breakdown
According to Cowen's chart, Ethereum experienced its first significant ETH/BTC decline in the fourth quarter of 2016, followed by a decline in ETH/USD for several months.
This move coincided with Ethereum breaking out of the green regression curve, which served as particularly strong support. Following this decline and breaking below the regression curve in Q4, Ethereum regained upward momentum in the following months.
#ETH / #USD The monthly candlesticks still track 2016 perfectly.
2019 (also 1 year) #ETH / #BTC broken), October was slightly green, but November/December was still red. https://t.co/XA2NvOmCGn pic.twitter.com/OI9Z1vBoRq
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) October 8, 2024
Similarly, in the fourth quarter of 2019, Ethereum experienced another ETH/BTC breakdown. After a brief recovery represented by green candlesticks in October 2019, cryptocurrencies faced two red months in November and December, showing further downside.
This pattern reflects Ethereum’s movement below the regression curve, followed by a recovery in the following months, especially in the first quarter of 2020.
Possibility of bankruptcy in Q4 2024
Looking ahead, analysis suggests that Ethereum is already experiencing a historic ETH/BTC collapse. Ethereum is currently closely tracking a log-regression band, and a further decline in ETH/USD could result in a crash. Similar to 2016 and 2019, the decline is likely to continue before Ethereum recovers in the following months.
Ethereum’s monthly trend in 2024 is already showing volatility. This year started with five consecutive green months from January to May. However, since June, prices have been in the red for several months, and October 2024 is also likely to be a deficit month. This behavior mirrors the pattern observed in previous failure periods.
Bearish mood increases due to whale movement
Adding to the bearish pressure, a recent on-chain report found a large amount of Ethereum being transferred to exchanges. Whales that participated in the Ethereum ICO are actively moving ETH, I recently transferred 5,000 ETH (worth $12.22 million) to Kraken.
This sale is part of a larger trend, with whales selling 45,000 ETH over the past two weeks at an average price of $2,516. To date, Whale has sold 60,000 ETH for $149.68 million.
Furthermore, the Ethereum Foundation transferred In two transactions, 2,500 ETH ($6.06 million) was transferred to the Bitstamp exchange. This activity triggered speculation Ethereum in particular continues to face downward pressure in Q4 2024, which could lead to further sell-offs.
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