Will Biden Drop Out? Crypto bettors are putting millions of dollars on the possibility of US President Joe Biden dropping out over concerns surrounding his candidacy, with a major crypto predictions market giving Biden a 73% chance of dropping out of the 2024 election. Also, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in a head-to-head matchup with the presumptive Democratic nominee.
This comes after calls for Biden to resign have grown since last Thursday's nasty debate. The New York Times report Biden was reported early Wednesday to have told allies he was considering dropping out of the race, though White House officials said the story was false. Nevertheless, the report quickly caused a stir on burgeoning prediction markets. Polymarket.
On the trading platform, Biden's chances of quitting rose steadily overnight, rising by more than 15 points between 7.30am and 8.30am on Wednesday morning, from 60% to 76%. Times piece.
That figure now stands at 73%. As of Tuesday, users who had collectively wagered more than $10 million estimated there was just a 45% chance the president would be removed from office.
For the first time since polling began in prediction markets, Kamala Harris has a 43% chance of winning. Becoming the Democratic candidateAs of this writing, bettors say he has a 34% chance of beating incumbent President Biden.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom's chances of winning increased slightly from 3% to 7%, behind only “other (including Whitmer)” (a reference to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer) at 13% and former first lady Michelle Obama at 8%.
It's a surprising shift for Harris since late Tuesday night. Decryption Her chances of becoming the nominee were reportedly now at just 31%, well below Biden's 58% at the time. The switch in positions not only signals Biden's lack of confidence that he will make it to the end of the campaign this fall, but also a realization among the crypto community and prediction market users that VP Harris would be a viable option to step into the spotlight.
In the crypto world, the vice president’s meme coin crypto, Solana token KAMA, also continued to surge early Wednesday morning. From an overnight high of $0.0096, the coin surged to $0.0185 after reports of discussions within the Biden campaign surfaced.
While the coin has stabilized at $0.015, the coin’s market cap has increased to $16 million at the time of writing, signaling users’ confidence in the vice president’s chances of taking control of the Democratic Party in the upcoming elections.
After a disastrous week for the 80-year-old U.S. president Times Biden has reportedly heard concerns about his ability to continue in office, and his campaign sees the interview with George Stephanopoulos and two rallies this weekend as important steps to regain a faltering public's confidence, according to the report.
But the public outcry, driven in part by dramatic shifts in polling in prediction markets and cryptocurrency exchanges, may force the president to act sooner than he had hoped.
Editor: Andrew Hayward
The views and opinions of the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice.
