Plan B, a noted quantitative analyst, believes Bitcoin (BTC) could reach six digits by the end of 2024.
In a new strategy session, an on-chain analyst told 157,000 YouTube subscribers that based on previous history, Bitcoin price is currently He said it is likely to be worth twice as much.
“What’s next in 2024?
In my opinion, reaching $100,000 is inevitable as we need to restore miner revenue. Due to the halving, mining revenue has been halved. All miners, industry-wide revenues are down his 50% and need to recover.
The past three halvings typically resulted in recovery within 4 to 8 months. So that's enough for this year 2024. And the only way mining revenue will recover is if the price doubles. So, extrapolating from the current price of $60,000, it should be well over $100,000 this year. ”
PlanB also notes that its stock-to-flow model, which divides the amount of goods in circulation by the amount produced each year, suggests that BTC will reach its $500,000 price target within the next four years.
“Has been updated [stock-to-flow] The model and parameters do not change much. The goal for 2024-2028 is still around $500,000 on average.
Also note that the error always decreases when it is halved. In other words, there is a half-life, and the value of the model increases. And of course, it will take some time, and it will take some time for the price of Bitcoin to catch up with the value of the model. The same goes for cutting it in half. In my opinion, this halving also comes true.
So we can see that the error is already reduced. Of course, it won't reach $500,000 in May, so it will drop again. The price for that model will slowly increase over the next few months…
I think it will reach the top in 2025. That's because, historically, the top of a bull market was after the halving, about a year and a half after the halving. So it will be 2025. And the big question, of course, is whether prices follow diminishing returns, and the high-end price of about $200,000 would be consistent with diminishing returns. Or, in fact, will prices again follow a stock-to-flow model and yield exponential returns again?
you know my answer. I think the stock-to-flow concept is still valid. I think there will be exponential returns at least until the adoption rate is 50%, but currently he is between 1% and 10%. The adoption rate is far from 50%. I think we'll see exponential returns. ”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $62,868, up 6.5% in the past 24 hours.
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