Network economist Timothy Peterson warns that if the US Federal Reserve reduces interest rate cuts in 2025, it could cause a wider market slump and pull Bitcoin back to $70,000.
“All you need is a trigger. This trigger may be as easy as the Fed won't cut this year at all,” Peterson said on the X-Post on March 8th. Peterson's comments came the day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell repeatedly said he was in a hurry to adjust interest rates.
Fed rate reduction delays could cause bear market
“We don't have to hurry, we're good to wait for more clarity,” Powell said in a speech in New York on March 7th.
sauce: Timothy Peterson
Peterson, author of Metcalf's Law as a Model of Bitcoin Value, estimated how low the Nasdaq will be to predict the underlying underlying Bitcoin (BTC) in the “next bear market.”
Using Peterson's Nasdaq's lowest price pre-model, he estimated that once the bear market began, the Nasdaq would fall 17% in about seven months or more before finding the bottom.
According to CoinmarketCap data, the amount was applied to a “1.9” multiplier due to the decline in Bitcoin, and the amount fell by 33% due to the decline in Bitcoin, down from the current price of $86,199 to $57,000.
sauce: Timothy Peterson
However, he said that Bitcoin is likely not falling that far, hoping that floor prices will be near the low $70,000 range, based on historic trends in 2022.
“Traders and opportunists float above Bitcoin like vultures,” he said. If the market predicted Bitcoin would reach $57,000, he explained, “we don't get there because there are always investors who intervene because the price is low enough, so we don't get there.”
Bitcoin's 2022 Low did not drop as expected
“I remember back in 2022 when everyone said the bottom would be $12,000. He said before pointing out that the $57,000-25% increase was $71,000.
The last thing Bitcoin traded near the $71,000 price level was November 6th after Donald Trump rallied for a month after winning the US election and hit $100,000 by December 5th.
Related: Bitcoin investors share a mixed reaction to the White House Script Summit
In January 2025, Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes reflected a similar price forecast.
“I am calling for a $70,000-$75,000 revision in BTC to resume the mini financial crisis and the money print that will be sent to $250,000 by the end of the year,” Hayes said on the X-Post January 27th.
In December 2024, Crypto Mining Firm Blockware Solutions said that Bitcoin's “Bear Case” in 2025 would be $150,000.
magazine: Meet Attorney Max Berwick – “Crypto Ambulance Chaser”
