The US government imposes a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. The measure, promoted by Donald Trump, poses a threat to the free trade system that the three countries have maintained for more than 30 years.
Even before confirmation that the tariffs came into effect on March 4, Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Mexican Ministry of Economy, warned that these taxes would represent approximately $20.5 billion in expenses for around 89 million American families. He also warned of the possible impact of inflation on products such as computers, televisions, refrigerators, produce, auto parts and vehicles.
Mexico is an important trading partner of the United States. Between January and November 2024, Mexico's exports totaled $466.6 billion, while US exports reached $309.4 billion.
In Mexico, these tariffs have a particular impact on the automotive and electronics industry, which accounts for about 46% of Mexico's exports, with a total value of around $200 billion.
The automotive industry is at risk
The automotive industry demonstrates significant regional integration under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The agreement allows foreign companies that are produced in Mexico or Canada and use locally produced materials to export their products to the United States at a low tax rate.
The Trump administration argues that the conditions were exploited by China to benefit the automotive industry. Mexico has become the third largest vehicle exporter in the world. Between 2022 and 2023, its revenues rose 14.3% to a value of $188.9 million, according to the World Trade Organization. Most of these units are shipped to the US, but many of the origins can be traced back to China, according to the Ministry of Economy.
Mexico's national auto parts industry warns that the imposition of tariffs on Mexican imports will weaken trade, reduce regional competitiveness and affect economic stability. In a statement, the automotive and auto parts sector is a pillar of North American exports and has the capacity to generate jobs of over 11 million people in USMCA countries. The association predicts that Mexican assemblers can reduce production by as many as one million units this year due to new taxes that will affect product availability, job creation and supply chains.
The major states that produce auto parts in Mexico are Mexico City, Chihuahua and Nuevo Leon. Experts say the companies most affected are Japanese, congregants of European origin. Ebrard estimates that the new tax burden will affect 12 million households in the region, increasing spending of up to $10.4 billion in the region. For example, he pointed out that 88% of the pickups sold in the US come from Mexico and are assembled by companies such as General Motors, Ford and Stellantis.
The Minister of Economy emphasized that tariffs represent the US shooting at the feet as they directly affect their own car companies that rely on Mexican production to supply the domestic market.
Elevated electronic prices
The electronics and electrical products sectors are also affected. In November 2024, Mexico's electrical and electronics exports reached $8.9 billion, with 89% of which being directed to the United States. Production of these devices is concentrated in Baja, Chihuahuas and Nuevo Leon, California, where thousands of jobs and assembly plants could be at risk.
Trump's tariffs have a great deal of implications for US consumers. The SEC study estimates that additional collection will cost an additional $7.1 billion for the 40 million families who purchase the computer. Similarly, approximately 32 million households are expected to pay up to $2.4 million when purchasing a new monitor, and approximately 5 million families are expected to underwrite an additional $817 million when purchasing a refrigerator.
