Bitcoin's recent price rise represents a complex interplay of political dynamics and economic factors, with the upcoming US presidential election being one of the most important factors.
Siegel compared current market conditions to trends evident during the 2020 election cycle. He noted that Bitcoin generally tends to plateau in the months leading up to an election, and only rises significantly after the uncertainty of the election outcome dissipates. Bitcoin’s recent moves have coincided with an increase in betting odds in favor of crypto-proponent candidate Donald Trump.
Siegel said that because cryptocurrencies are inversely correlated to the U.S. dollar, periods of weak dollar growth typically increase interest in Bitcoin as a better alternative store of value. Past changes in M2 money supply have influenced Bitcoin's trajectory.
Meanwhile, Siegel said a potential future catalyst for Bitcoin's rise has to do with global debt issues. The threat of credit downgrades in major economies like the United States may lead investors to turn to digital currencies as a hedge against traditional financial system risks.
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