Ethereum (ETH) founder Vitalik Buterin is unfazed by the controversy surrounding his decentralized gambling platform Polymarket.
The Polygon-based gambling platform has drawn criticism for providing a war market related to the ongoing conflict between Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas in the Middle East.
In the market, people are asking, “Will the Israeli army enter Lebanon in September?'' “Will the US evacuate the Beirut embassy by October 31st?” allows users to bet on the outcome of geopolitical conflicts.
1 X user it claimed “I find it strange that there is a Hezbollah gambling section in Polymarket that makes it look like a football game with war bets on it.”
Polymarket investor Buterin has pushed back against that opinion and expressed support for decentralized betting platforms, arguing that they have a purpose beyond the simple financialization of global events. did.
“The point of Polymarket is that from a trader’s perspective it’s a betting site, but from an audience’s perspective it’s a news site. There are all kinds of people on Twitter and the internet (including elites) posting information about disputes that are harmful and unpopular. You can go and see if people who have made accurate predictions and actually have skin in the game think there's a 2% chance or a 50% chance of something. It's a valuable feature that helps keep you sane.
It's not about 'making money off bad things happening', it's about creating an environment where speech has consequences without resorting to government or corporate censorship (i.e. unwarranted fear-mongering and unwarranted complacency). both are punished). ”
Zach Rynes, community liaison for the decentralized oracle network Chainlink (LINK), then questioned whether Buterin would support the assassination market. Assassination markets can encourage bettors to act violently to influence the outcome.
In response, the creators of Ethereum announced their opposition to the assassination market.
“From the beginning, Augur instructed the oracles to vote over any resolutions related to the assassination market. The dividing line for me is that so that people can do insider trading, people can do bad things. The question is whether the market is functioning as an “incentive''. ”
But Lines countered that decentralized betting markets could also influence other events if the stakes were large enough.
“While this is an extreme example, prediction markets around influential events can encourage action, even if that was not the original intention, or, given enough liquidity, subsidize the inevitable.” It starts to either give you or.
Would the results change if these markets traded with $100 million or more in liquidity? Maybe not, but if there was insider trading going on, they would be subsidizing the war. Isn't that what it means?
I don't think prediction markets are passive observers, their presence influences the results when operating on a large scale. ”
Buterin acknowledged that, but insisted that Polymarket is currently “far from that scenario.” He suggested that platforms implement size-based soft caps to prevent things like incentivizing war.
“Perhaps fees increase as scale approaches maximum, and 100% of fee income is used to subsidize socially valuable markets with very low “organic” volumes? ”
Polymarket itself claims that the point of Middle East-related markets is to “harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate and unbiased predictions about the events that matter most to society.”
“That ability is especially valuable in gut-wrenching times like today. After talking with people directly affected by the attack, we have dozens of questions that you can't get on TV news or Twitter. method, they realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed.
Note: We do not charge a fee for this, but we are providing this service at a loss. ”
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