The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be held this Thursday in Atlanta, a sign that the 2024 election is fast approaching. To get a better idea of what crypto enthusiasts think of the debate's outcome, I visited Polymarket, where bettors can place stablecoin bets on election outcomes and pretty much anything else. I was surprised to find something.
As of Monday night, the odds gave Trump a 59% chance of winning, compared with Biden's 34%. In effect, a $100 bet on the former president would return $169, while a bet on the current president would pay out $294. Partisan feelings aside, the odds seemed unusual given that recent polls have shown Trump with slight leads, including in battleground states, but nearly all within the margin of error. So why do the betting odds reflect a landslide victory for Trump?
There are two possible explanations. The first is that Polymarket detected trends that pollsters did not. This is entirely plausible, given that polls have been wildly off in recent elections because voters have become harder to reach since the landline era, making respondents more likely to lie or deceive pollsters. On the other hand, prediction markets like Polymarket are thought to be high signals because they have an economic stake in the outcomes people express.
Another explanation is that PolyMarket is wrong. This seems plausible, given that the entire cryptocurrency sector appears to support Trump. That is, the sample is biased and not representative of the average voter, as reflected in the voting odds. In other words, many of PolyMarket's bettors may be exhibiting cognitive biases that come from living in an echo chamber. All this may also be supported by the fact that cryptocurrency has emerged as the biggest “Trump trade” of the period. The “Trump trade” is a term referring to investors looking to take advantage of asset sectors that would benefit if the former president is re-elected.
What do you think? I think both of the above explanations are plausible. I would also like to point out that it is still June, so many things could happen that could shake up the election. Thursday's debate will be a showdown between a 78-year-old and an 81-year-old, which may disappoint many Americans. Finally, if you are interested in polymarkets, check out this interesting article. DLNews A profile of one of the site's most prolific bettors.
Jeff John Roberts
Jeff Roberts
Jeff John Roberts
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Meme of the moment
A real 2022 vibe:
