News of President Donald Trump being convicted in a New York courtroom on Thursday captured worldwide attention, but for cryptocurrency holders betting on the outcome of November's US presidential election, nothing fundamental changed.
More than $142 million has been bet on the “winner of the 2024 Presidential election,” the top political bet on cryptocurrency gambling site PolyMarket, which is not officially available to U.S. residents. For more than a week, Trump’s odds of victory have held steady at around 56%, mirroring many mainstream political polls.
After the verdict was announced, live odds fluctuated between 53% and 55%, remaining at that level at the time of writing.
The PolyMarket site had many separate betting markets set up for the trial, and just before the jury returned its blanket guilty verdict for the former president, users collectively predicted a 77 percent chance of conviction. But those bets were just $204,000, and there was still an hour left to be fought as of this writing.
More than four times that amount — $800,000 — hinges on whether Trump will be in prison by Election Day, and the odds of that happening have only risen slightly since the sentence was announced, from a steady 14% chance early on Thursday to 20% shortly after the news broke, before settling at 17%.
The collective shrug of reaction on Polymarkets stood in slight contrast to the reaction on Crypto Twitter, where some declared Trump’s ruling a verdict that was nothing less than a call for revolution.
“Buy a gun. Buy Bitcoin. Move to a Republican state,” said Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency research firm Messari. “The U.S. Constitution is broken.”
“Donald Trump is building a crypto army,” Mesari declared in a currently pinned tweet, adding, “If you care about crypto and the Republic, donate crypto to the Trump campaign.”
Adam Cochran, a partner at Sinamanhain Ventures, took the exact opposite stance, tweeting that the verdict proves Trump is a “criminal con man who says he's anti-establishment to trick you.”
As for the impact of the verdict on political meme coins, pro-Trump tokens fell following the news, which was confusing for some as many believe a guilty verdict would only increase Trump's chances of winning.
That may become common knowledge once the dust settles. $TRUMP token has rebounded in the past hour, erasing the temporary gains seen in $BODEN.
Eric Voorhees, founder of Shapeshift and Venice AI, said he was not surprised and that the trial had levelled “the ultimate condemnation” at a relatively minor crime.
Editor: Ryan Ozawa.
