BTC falls below $61,000, next target is here

Bitcoin’s rejection at $66,000 and below its 200-day moving average suggests that bearish sentiment is increasing.

If the price fails to hold the $60,000 support, a medium-term decline towards the $52,000-55,000 zone becomes more likely.

technical analysis

Written by Shayan

daily chart

On the daily chart, Bitcoin briefly returned to bullish territory as it surged above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

However, reaching the $66,000 resistance zone created significant selling pressure and halted the uptrend. This area has historically acted as a strong multi-month resistance line, and Bitcoin's inability to break above it resulted in significant rejection.

Bitcoin is currently trading below its 200-day moving average of $63,400 and hovering around its 100-day moving average of $61,000. This zone is important because the $60,000 support area is both psychological and substantial.

If Bitcoin falls below this barrier, a decline towards the $52,000 to $55,000 range is likely in the medium term. This area represents the next major support level and could be a target if bearish momentum continues.

4 hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's surge encountered significant resistance at the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci OTE retracement zone, which corresponds to the $66,000 price level.

This selling pressure caused a significant negative reaction, resulting in a 10% decline. The presence of sellers near the $66,000 level indicates that it remains a formidable barrier and serves as a key resistance level in the broader market outlook.

As a result, Bitcoin is expected to enter a short-term consolidation phase, with the next important level to watch being the psychological support at $60,000. If Bitcoin breaks above this support, it could consolidate before attempting another rally. However, if the $60,000 support is broken, a deeper retracement towards the $55,000 level is very likely, indicating a possible transition to a sustained bearish trend.

On-chain analysis

Written by Shayan

The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index is a key metric that helps you assess whether US institutional investors and large traders are actively buying and selling BTC on Coinbase compared to other exchanges. Currently, the index is negative, indicating bearish sentiment in the market due to significant selling pressure or a pause in accumulation by large investors.

In the short term, this negative premium reflects a lack of demand from US-based institutional investors, contributing to bearish market sentiment. However, for long-term holders, this period of low sentiment can often present attractive buying opportunities. From a broader perspective, the market is still moving within a downtrend channel, but both the accumulation and selling pressure appear to be tapering off.

This suggests that the market is in a period of indecision, where neither bulls nor bears have a firm grasp on the direction of price movements. As a result, this is not an ideal time for short-term trading, as the lack of a clear trend increases risk.