Bitcoin prices have entered a volatile trading range between $78,000 and $82,000 as bullish momentum fades and traders respond to changes in macroeconomic conditions.
After a temporary recall of $90,000 last week, the latest Bitfinex Alpha report shared with Crypto.news found that “sales” responses to developments such as the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the White House Crypto Summit caused pullbacks, erasing previous profits.
In addition to volatility, the $3 billion Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) option contract expired last Friday, causing significant price fluctuations. In the options market, traders hedged positions, jumping 35.7% ahead of the summit, achieving volatility above 80%.
According to the report, on-chain data revealed widespread losses, with traders recording realised losses of $888 million per day.
Bitcoin used its output profit margin, a key metric that measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling in profit or loss, but it fell into negative territory for the first time since October 2024.
Readings below 1.0 usually indicate distressing sales. In particular, short-term holders saw significant losses in the second-largest negative read of this cycle, with a SOPR of 0.95. If the Bullmarket structure is maintained, these levels could attract buyers, but the expanded debilitation could present an even more downside.
Emotional evaluation
The broader economic uncertainty also contributes to market hesitation. The US job market remains strong, with 151,000 jobs added in February, but the unemployment rate reached up to 4.1% amid the government's job cuts.
Wage growth remains strong, but inflationary pressures and trade disruption pose risks to economic stability. The manufacturing sector faces challenges, with new tariffs increasing production costs and slowing new orders.
Meanwhile, changes in regulations could potentially reconstruct the crypto landscape. President Donald Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve currently holds 187,000 btc worth $13 billion, indicating that a shift in US policy will be held as a domestic asset from seized Bitcoin sales.
Additionally, the administration has pushed for stable legislation by August, ending restrictive policies such as Operation Chalk Point 2.0.
In Japan, crypto-friendly tax reform has been introduced. This includes a 20% capital gains tax on digital assets and tax deferrals for crypto-to-crypto swaps. These changes could drive greater digital asset investments.
