After a sharp rally earlier this year, a summer downturn may have been hastened for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is up 48% for the year, thanks to the debut of a US Bitcoin ETF in January and bullish enthusiasm surrounding the April 19 halving. According to Coin Metrics, Bitcoin is trending at a positive pace for the first time in the past six weeks. But it fell 11% in the second quarter and is down about 14% from its all-time high of more than $73,000 in March. Analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin over the long term, but say some patience will be needed in the coming weeks. “It could take three to five months for Bitcoin to retest recent highs,” HC Wainwright analyst Mike Colonese told CNBC. “So [we’re] “We are neutral to cautious and bullish in the short term, and neutral on Bitcoin and, by extension, miners in the medium to long term.” BTC.CM= 3M Mountain Bitcoin down 11% this quarter, Bitcoin miners against Bitcoin Rob Ginsberg, a technical analyst at Wolfe Research, which offers high beta exposure and has historically outperformed it, agrees, “Over a multi-year horizon, it makes sense to hold for the long term.'' “We have reiterated our position that CleanSpark is the top candidate in this field,” he added. “Signs of further decline in the short term continue to worsen,” he said in a note this week, adding: “We ask ourselves whether the latest rejection at $70,000 is the beginning of an epic double top. It continues,” he said. Even in a bullish cycle, % and 30% are “normal levels” for Bitcoin. “As inflation continues to be high and the economy slows, Bitcoin could reach the low to mid-$50,000 range in the short term. I wouldn't be surprised if it returns; growth and geopolitical issues remain the key risks.” Bitcoin has remained above $60,000 since early May, but has fallen below that level for the first time since February. However, analysts studying the price chart see that level as fragile and warn of downside risks as low as $49,000. However, according to Colonese, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of this cycle. Between the increase in demand from Bitcoin ETFs this year and the decrease in supply due to the halving, the dynamics of supply and demand for cryptocurrencies are fascinating. His base case is that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this cycle. “If you look at past price cycles, Bitcoin has historically peaked 1 to 18 months after the halving, and each subsequent cycle has had a longer bullish period,” Colonese said. “Bitcoin rose to over $67,000 in November 2021, 546 days after the third halving in May 2020.” “Assuming a similar period for this bullish phase of the price cycle. Then, Bitcoin may not reach its cycle peak until October 2025,” Colonese added. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
