Updated on 04/20 below.This post was originally published on April 19th
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Bitcoin is hours away from its next supply cut, known as the halving, amid fears of a “rapid and catastrophic” collapse of the US dollar.
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Binance Bitcoin Wallet Now Issues 'Credible' iPhone Hack Warning, One Closely Watched Analyst Says Bitcoin Halving Could Surge Bitcoin Price to Around $1.8 Million Despite being issued by Wall Street banks, Bitcoin's market capitalization will reach approximately $35 trillion. Serious warning about Bitcoin price halving.
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Bitcoin price has fallen ahead of the recent Bitcoin halving, but some believe Bitcoin is about to reach a halving … [+]
Bitcoin's halving (a supply cut in which the Bitcoin block reward will be reduced from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins) is scheduled for later today, and will mark the beginning of a dramatic change in the Bitcoin industry since the last supply cut in 2020. It could wreak havoc on the economic situation.
According to NiceHash's countdown, the halving, when the daily new Bitcoin supply will drop from about 900 Bitcoins to 450 Bitcoins, is just hours away. The 2024 Bitcoin halving will be the fourth for Bitcoin, following previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
Bitcoin analyst Noel Acheson said, “If you look at its past performance a year after the halving, if it follows the same path as the previous cycle, Bitcoin will likely be worth a year from now. could reach $450,000, but if this cycle turns out to be similar to 2016, it could reach $270,000.” The authors of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter write: bloomberg data.
However, when you use Axios According to the data, Acheson said Bitcoin's price could “reach $350,000 (using previous cycles as a guide) or $1.8 million (applying 2016 cycle performance). He pointed out that there is a possibility that Bitcoin's market capitalization could reach $35 trillion.
Update 04/20: Bitcoin successfully completed its fourth halving at approximately 8:00 PM ET after the network issued its 840,000th block. This is the so-called block height pre-programmed by Bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto when the block reward is halved. A Bitcoin miner who secures the network with a high-performance computer will receive 3.125 Bitcoins for each block mined, down from 6.25 Bitcoins yesterday.
Bitcoin prices remained stable in the hours leading up to and following the noted supply cut.
“If we can learn about the next halving from data from past Bitcoin halving cycles, the potential impact could become apparent until more than a year or even 18 months after the halving. It would be considered less sexual,” co-founder Michael Anderson said. said crypto-focused investor Framework Ventures in his emailed comment.
“Simply put, while halvings tend to garner media attention and also serve as a timely reminder of the importance of Bitcoin’s limited monetary supply, the decline in supply is historically However, this is the first crypto market cycle in which Bitcoin reached an all-time high before the halving, and the old model is likely unreliable. It suggests that.”
The countdown to Bitcoin's next halving has already begun, and the number of new Bitcoins issued to miners will once again be reduced, currently scheduled for early March 2028.
“In the short term, the upcoming halving will disrupt supply and demand a bit, giving more investors a piece of the pie,” Duncan Ash, head of strategy at Coincover, said in emailed comments. Market pressure will increase as the market seeks to
“This situation is likely to continue until high prices deter new investors, which would restore a closer balance between the number of buyers and sellers and stabilize the market.Furthermore, the industry , with more users, higher market capitalization, and larger scale.''Therefore, we expect to see a stabilizing effect on the market in the medium to long term. ”
This Bitcoin halving is the first to occur outside of the Federal Reserve's Zilp era, and the first since the much-anticipated arrival of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wall Street. This is the first time since China. In 2021, domestic Bitcoin miners were expelled.
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Bitcoin prices soared last year, canceling out a 2022 price crash ahead of it … [+]
“We are currently in a high inflation, high interest rate environment,” Jeff Hancock, CEO of cryptocurrency app CoinPass, said in an emailed comment. “The Bitcoin market has matured from a hobby for crypto enthusiasts to a real asset that is of interest to institutional investors, which is why we feel this cycle will be different,” Hancock said. He pointed to Wall Street's Spot Bitcoin ETFs. “Institutional investor demand for Bitcoin will continue.”
Bitcoin halvings will continue approximately every four years until around 2140. When the Bitcoin network stops generating new Bitcoins, miners will only earn income from transaction fees. Provisions are already underway for this with protocols such as Ordinal, Runes, and BRC-20. That pushed up transaction fees.
After weeks of speculation including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs
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Analysts have warned this week that Bitcoin prices could fall immediately after the halving, but there is still little consensus on how supply cuts will affect Bitcoin prices. do not have.
Historically, the price of Bitcoin has increased in the months following the past three halvings. Andrew O'Neill, crypto analyst at S&P Global, said: Reuters “I'm a little skeptical about the lessons we can learn from past halvings in terms of price prediction,” he said.
