The Bitcoin (BTC-USD) halving event is scheduled to take place this weekend, either Friday, April 19th or Saturday, April 20th. Once every four years, the halving event reduces the number of available Bitcoins in circulation and ultimately works to control inflation. Cryptocurrency.
Alex Felix, co-founder and CIO of CoinFund, and Matt Ballensweig, managing director and head of the Go network at BitGo, join Market Domination to discuss Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory.
Valenswijk believes that Bitcoin's halving is not a “special event” in the short term, and advises traders to “follow the basics” when managing crypto-related stocks such as Bitcoin miners. He advises them to be faithful to the Felix believes that Bitcoin could rise to somewhere between $150,000 and $200,000 over the next few years, based on past post-halving price trends.
Want to learn more about Bitcoin halving? Watch this video from Yahoo Finance for a quick explanation. Bitcoin Halving: Explained
For expert insights and the latest market trends, click here to watch the full episode of Market Domination.
This post was written by luke carberry morgan.
video transcript
Julie Hyman: The long-awaited, or at least long-discussed, Bitcoin halving is expected to occur over the weekend. And that will be the amount of new Bitcoin available every day. Bad news for crypto miners. What does that mean for investors? We're looking at how to navigate the big picture using Yahoo Finance's playbook.
Matt Ballensweig, Head of Go Network at BitGo, and Alex Felix, Co-Founder and CEO of CoinFund, will be joining us. Thank you everyone for being here. Thank you very much. So I think first of all you need to ask what the price will be.
Because in past halvings, we have seen prices rise after the halving. However, thanks to ETFs, the market now appears to be somewhat larger. I don't know if the dynamics are different. Alex, let's start with your thoughts.
Alex Felix: wonderful. Thanks for hanging out with me, Julie. Everyone should own Bitcoin. It is the best-performing asset of all time, with an annualized return of 153% from 2011 to 2024. Runners-up stocks like the Nasdaq, US growth stocks, and even her S&P haven't been able to keep up with the returns we've seen so far. Despite her four drawdowns of over 75% since 2011, she is still alpha for the portfolio.
In terms of where we're going here, if you look at past cycle highs, we tend to see explosive growth as we move past previous highs. The previous high suggests a move of about 250%. So from here we're in the 240k range. So I think 150,000 to 200,000 is achievable in the next 1-2 years. However, it is difficult to set an exact deadline for it.
– You know, Matt, I'm thinking more broadly about the crypto market right now with news events like the halving. I would like to know how you judge Bitcoin's place in the overall transaction. Will there be another altcoin summer? where are we–
We haven't talked much about Ether over the past few months as Bitcoin hit record highs. So let's get through this weekend. But where is the mood in crypto trading today?
Matt Valensweig: surely. And thank you so much for having me on board. From a trading perspective, I think you need to think about this from two different and unique perspectives. One is short-term and the other is long-term. Long-term lenses make this forward vision much easier.
But if you're a trader and you're in the field and you have to think about this short-term thing, how do you position yourself to think about this, just like in the normal short-term case? I think it's the most important. This is really a trivial event. If you look at Bitcoin's performance in the month following each halving going back to 2012, in 2012, the month following a halving had a positive performance of only 9%.
In 2016, it decreased by 10%. And in 2020, it was +6%. So this could be a nothing burger in the short term. Only 450 Bitcoin Delta will be missing from the supply side order book. That's the difference between how much money miners can sell tomorrow and what they can sell today.
And the price doesn't change just for each day. That being said, in the long run, 450 Bitcoins per day will add up. This would reduce net supply by more than 12 billion units.
And combine this with 12 billion in net new demand from institutions participating in new ETFs. And over the long term, I think we'll start to see some pretty big moves in BTC and the market as a whole. Looking at Bitcoin's performance in the years following the halving, it was +8,000% in 2012, +285% in 2016, and +550% in 2020. So I think we're in a pretty good position long term. Move.
Julie Hyman: Well, everyone. Therefore, if we accept the theory that it will rise in the long run, the question is how to take advantage of it. Would you buy the underlying Bitcoin? Preferably through these new ETFs? Avoid miners like the plague? This is because they are seen as potentially disadvantaged by this. Matt, let me start by talking about this.
Matt Valensweig: surely. If you're looking to trade miner stocks, I think it's just a more complex version of spot BTC. These are basically Bitcoin derivatives. However, each of these companies also has its own risks.
So unless you're an analyst who's willing to go down the rabbit hole of researching and analyzing each of these minor stocks, I'd stick to the basics here. I think one way to trade this is you have to have skin in the game. We have to remain bullish on Bitcoin for the long term. You need to own spot assets with conviction. So start by going long BTC spot.
If you're trying to hedge some of the short-term volatility and chop, this news can sell instantly, so what you can do in that case is basically sell a BTC call. money. So something like June's 80,000 BTC call can generate some sort of return. Depending on the strike and deadline, the return could be 5%, or about 24% annualized through June.
And then you can actually use some of that premium into long calls like tail alternatives like ETH or Solana, or go further down the rabbit hole and take advantage of the potential big upside once the halving comes into view. You can do that. So this is her one trading idea. But there's a lot out there.
– Yeah, and Alex, I'm curious to hear what you guys think of your preferences in terms of vehicles, setups, etc. through this event. But again, this is the fourth bull run for cryptocurrencies here, whatever it is. How do you see things?
Alex Felix: I also agree with Matt. We want to belong to spot assets. And now you can use various tools to get around it. We have a CME option and will soon be adding an ETF option as well. And short-term interest can accumulate there.
However, there is a general saying about cryptocurrencies. It's not a key or a coin. People have been losing large amounts of spot Bitcoin over the years. Therefore, you must always be careful.
But it's actually happening here. That's the least interesting thing happening in cryptocurrencies right now. This is a great opportunity for us to discuss Bitcoin and thank Satoshi for creating the first blockchain and solving the double-spending problem.
But what we have in front of us is that this is the first ever record amount of regulatory clarity and institutionalization around a major cryptocurrency asset and its first blockchain, the cryptocurrency, or Bitcoin. is. But that's just one use case for him. However, non-sovereign-backed digital money wants to frame its use case around Bitcoin.
And with so much innovation going on on blockchain rails, this will be the first asset that people actually own. And they may seek higher growth and higher potential in other subsectors of applications and protocols that are being built to address other use cases. For example, stablecoins, which are digital cash, currently generate 30% more fees than Bitcoin transactions.
So we've seen use cases of just moving digital fiat on crypto rails. We are seeing a lot of innovation in gaming, financial markets, AI, and many other sub-sectors that are just starting to adopt blockchain rails. And I think everything other than Bitcoin Ethereum and Coinbase is less than six years old, because you're starting to see the fangs starting to show. And Bitcoin is leading the way in this field. You can find many other great opportunities to allocate more funds in different parts of the cryptocurrency world.
– Yes, I understand. wonderful. Leave it as is. Matt, Alex, thank you for your time. Enjoy your weekend!
