The recent decline in Bitcoin is not just a cryptographic problem, but has closely followed the performance of major tech stocks such as Apple, Tesla and Microsoft. Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered calls this the “Magnificent Seven Plus Bitcoin” group. Tesla is struggling, but Meta and Apple are still more resilient. Bitcoin's movement is driven primarily by wider market instability rather than internal cryptographic factors. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policy regarding Canada puts even more pressure on investors' feelings.
The crypto market is currently in the “risk-off” stage, with investors eschewing high-risk assets. Bitcoin reflects a growth-focused recession in high-tech stocks, reflecting growing economic uncertainty and careful market sentiment.
Fed signals can cause rebound – Bitcoin testing
Kendrick says Bitcoin needs one of two things to bounce. It suggests that either stocks (particularly technology) will start climbing again, or that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Bitcoin could surge if the Fed is signaling easier money, for example if the rate was reduced in May. Currently, traders are seeing a 50% chance that it will happen. Strong tips and actual cuts can be a need for cipher sparks.
However, if inventory is weak and the Fed is not upset, Bitcoin could drop even further. Kendrick warns that it could go faster from $76,500 to $69,000. Still, he is an optimistic long-term, predicting $200,000 by the end of 2025 if the Fed finally eases.
Fed meetings and Trump trade tensions add pressure
The Fed's next meeting will be March 19th, and we expect most fees to remain the same (97% odds). Don't let investors down and make Bitcoin tense. An unchanged rate could quickly push Bitcoin down to $70,000 and drag other coins like Ethereum and Solana.
Furthermore, new trade tariffs are causing markets, as a 25% tax on imports from Mexico and Canada has been proposed. This trade war could slow growth and further damage dangerous assets such as stocks and crypto.
Some analysts speculate that the administration's hard-hit trade tactics are intentional gambits and will put pressure on the Fed more quickly on the cut rate. The theory is that the White House can spur the Fed by undermining market confidence and straining the economy. In fact, interest rate futures have shifted rapidly, reflecting the growing expectations for the Fed easing. Prices had been reduced by about 46% by May, and by now June it had risen to almost 90%. This suggests that the market is increasingly betting that it must respond to rising economic and geopolitical risks in the coming months.
The stock market is struggling amid the current mix of Fed tightening and trade disputes. For example, the S&P 500's profits since the start of Trump's second term are much smaller than the equivalent of his first term, reflecting weaker investor confidence and growth concerns.
Solana and Ethereum are already facing sales as Bitcoin declines. For now, Bitcoin has been waiting. A Fed Shift or Stock Rally could raise it, but increasing uncertainty can mean there is more loss in the beginning.
Exploration: Real Investors Buy Fear: The Best Cryptograph to Buy in March 2025
Key takeout
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Bitcoin tracks tech stocks – its decline reflects wider market volatility, following major tech stocks such as Tesla and Apple.
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Reducing the Fed rate could potentially boost Bitcoin. Interest rate cuts in May could cause a recovery. Traders have a 50% chance of seeing them.
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Trade tensions hurt the market – Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada put pressure on stocks and crypto.
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Bitcoin's Uncertain Pass – Without the Fed Shift, Bitcoin could drop to $69K. The long-term target remains at $200k by 2025.
Post-Bitcoin falls in stocks following Trump's trade war – what's the next move for the Fed? It first appeared in 99 Bitcoin.
