Bitcoin Betting Surge: Traders Eye High $80,000 By November Despite US Election Uncertainty

Bitcoin stakes skyrocket: Options traders are betting optimistically on Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, that it will hit a record high of 8 in November 2024 no matter who wins the 2024 US election, Bloomberg reports. It is said to have reached $1,000.

At the beginning of October 21st, Bitcoin traded at around $70,000 when US voter polls suggested Republican candidate former President Donald Trump was neck-and-neck with rival Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris. It rose to near the milestone.

But Bloomberg now says that based solely on market sentiment, investors are increasingly betting the token will hit a yearly high of $80,000 in November, regardless of a Harris or Trump victory. Reported.

Trump or Harris? Traders bet on Bitcoin party

While Trump has publicly expressed his positive stance and support for cryptocurrencies, Harris has reiterated her calls for regulation of the industry. However, she has moved away from current President Joe Biden's “crackdown” stance on cryptocurrencies, which traders see as progress, the report said.

Furthermore, the upcoming rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also improved trader sentiment.

Bloomberg reports that volatility in Bitcoin options is “up” ahead of the election, adding that most bets are “biased” toward call options. A call option gives a trader the right to buy Bitcoin at a new high price.

Jeff May, chief operating officer of cryptocurrency exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk: “Both presidential candidates have taken a pro-crypto stance to appeal to voters, but it remains to be seen whether their pledges will materialize. It's difficult,” he said.

What does the data show?

Data compiled by crypto options exchange Deribit also shows that the put-to-call market is biased towards call options rather than puts. Open interest for call contracts expiring on November 29th is concentrated around $80,000, with the second most popular bet being $70,000.

Additionally, open interest for calls expiring on December 27th is concentrated around $100,000 and $80,000, while the most popular strike price for calls expiring on November 8th is $75,000. USD, the BB report added.

What do the experts say?

David Rowant, head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX, told Bloomberg that the market consensus has turned positive towards Bitcoin. Bitcoin has gained about 61% this year, last hitting $67,500 on October 23rd.

“We think the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome. Our analysis shows that options activity surrounding upcoming elections will be significantly upside-biased. It shows a trend,” Rawant said.

“We see traders buying calls near $68,000 and puts near $66,000. In other words, many traders took positions for a breakout on either end and continued to change positions. There are limited reasons for it to go down after the election, so it makes more sense for it to go up,” Swap Global co-founder F Feldman told Bloomberg.

“This shows that investors are using the options market as a tool to capture potential upside, rather than as a hedge against downside risk. Opinions are even more divided regarding cryptoassets other than Bitcoin. “I think there is not much consensus in the market on how these alternative cryptocurrencies will perform under different election scenarios,” Rawant added.

“It's clear that markets are reacting positively to future administration and policy changes. Whether it's Harris or Trump, traders and investors think any change is a good thing. “The fact that this coincides with the first interest rate cut in four years and the recent surge in stock prices further strengthens the hypothesis that Bitcoin could surpass its all-time high and reach $80,000,” May said. told CoinDesk.

(Information provided by Bloomberg)