The chances of US President Joe Biden running for a second term are fading as the commander in chief's worsening health issues call into question his fitness to hold the nation's highest office, according to bettors at cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarkets.
In Polymarkets' betting pool, which holds more than $135 million in cryptocurrency, 60% of traders are betting that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will win the Democratic presidential nomination by Aug. 21. In contrast, only 28% of users are betting that Biden will come out on top.
Meanwhile, about 10% of bettors are betting on other candidates, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, according to PolyMarket data. Harris' chances of winning the nomination rose to 64% early Thursday.
The plunge in bettors' confidence that Biden can win the Democratic presidential nomination contrasts with earlier expectations: Last week, bettors gave Biden roughly a 74% chance of seeking reelection, according to a screenshot of PolyMarket data. share Posted by anonymous Coinbase engineer Yuga.eth on Twitter (alias X).
This surprising reversal report from The Washington Post Biden announced he had been diagnosed with COVID-19 just a day after President Obama reportedly expressed doubts to political allies about the “feasibility” of Biden running for president for a second time.
The diagnosis came shortly after Biden's poor performance in last month's debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump sparked widespread public speculation about whether the octogenarian president was mentally fit to run for office.
Prediction markets have sometimes proven to be more accurate in gauging voter behavior than traditional polling methods. One prominent prediction market, PredictIt, Advertised In an official statement, the company said its traders accurately predicted the Electoral College outcomes in seven battleground states during the 2020 US presidential election.
Meanwhile, many political commentators criticized polling data before that year's election for exaggerating Biden's lead over Trump. report According to the nonpartisan think tank Pew Research Center, experts are still divided on whether prediction markets can consistently forecast the outcomes of future events.
Editor: Andrew Hayward
The views and opinions of the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice.
