Two days after US Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the front-runner for the Democratic Party's top office, embattled incumbent President Joe Biden is seen as the most likely candidate to come out on top again in November's presidential election, according to cryptocurrency betting site Polymarket.
The site on Friday saw Biden's chances of becoming the Democratic nominee rise to 42 percent, while Harris' chances fell to 36 percent. So far, more than $88 million has been bet on who will be the Democratic nominee.
Popular betting markets had expected Harris to upset Biden earlier this week in the aftermath of the chaotic first presidential debate, where Biden's lackluster performance raised concerns about his viability as a candidate and sparked speculation over a potential successor.
The odds have mostly hovered above 40% since Tuesday, with Harris leading the pack for most of the past two days, though Biden's odds jumped later in the day after he told supporters, “I'm going to fight this race to the end, and I'm going to win.”
Another strong statement from Biden appears to have helped propel him back into the race. PolyMarket (aka X) noted on Twitter that the president gave an “impassioned speech” in Wisconsin on Friday, again vowing to stay in the race. The odds of Biden dropping out (a separate PolyMarket bet with $11 million at stake) have fallen to 59%, the site noted.
That probability had recovered slightly to 61% at the time of writing, and rose to 82% on Tuesday.
In contrast to the fluctuations in the Democratic candidate prediction market, Polymarket users give former First Lady Michelle Obama a 7% chance of becoming the party's presidential nominee, despite her frequent and explicit claims that she will not run, while Biden's presumptive opponents remain fairly stable.
Former President Donald Trump has been the overall favorite to be the next US president, with a 60% or higher chance of winning for more than two weeks, according to PolyMarket. With more than $220 million wagered, Harris remains favored over Biden among PolyMarket bettors, with odds of winning of 16% to 13%, respectively.
Editor: Andrew Hayward
