- At Polymarket, the acceptance odds for Ethereum ETF were below 25%.
- Vijay Boyapati predicts that the May rejection of the ETH ETF could benefit BTC.
The overall market is leaning towards the possibility of US spot Ethereum [ETH] In May, the ETF application was rejected.
According to the prediction market platform, Polymarketbets on the ETH ETF's May approval have fallen by 68%, with the odds at 24% at the time of writing.
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seifert accurately predicted US spot Bitcoin [BTC] The ETF's approval reflects polymarket sentiment.
recently post At X, Seifert emphasized that the SEC's “silence” and “no feedback” on recent ETH ETF applications is “violence” against customers.
“Eric said 'silence is violence' about the Ethereum ETF on a call with a client last week, and I loved it.”
Seifert was responding to Balciunas' statement that the SEC did not provide “significant feedback” even during in-person meetings. This meant that approval in May remained unlikely.
Will BTC benefit from Ethereum ETF’s May rejection?
As May rapidly approaches and the possibility of approval looks elusive, commentator and author of “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin”, Vijay Boyapati, says: claimed that,
“All the hot money that went into ETH because of ETF Hopium will go back to Bitcoin if all Ethereum ETFs are rejected.”
For Boyapati's prediction to come true, ETH's market dominance would need to decline significantly as BTC soars.
according to coin market cap, at the time of writing, BTC's market power was 52.4%, mainly due to strong ETF flows over the past three months. ETH's market power was 16.5%.
If Boyapati's theory is confirmed, ETH market power could fall below 16% or 15% as the market recalibrates towards the May ETH ETF rejection. If so, capital turnover could trigger momentum for BTC.
Meanwhile, ETH was above an important weekly bearish order block (3.2K-3.5K). The market was solidifying around the domestic top position in the first quarter of 2022. A dip below 3.2K could allow the bears to overwhelm the market, especially if the ETH ETF application is rejected.
