Bernstein said on Tuesday that the trajectory of Bitcoin's price will be heavily influenced by the upcoming US presidential election, saying that if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, Bitcoin could reach unprecedented levels. He suggested that the price could soar and exceed $80,000 to $90,000.
However, if Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin's near-term outlook could decline sharply and test new lows in the $40,000 range.
Gautam Chughani, global head of digital, said: “We expect Bitcoin to continue to react to election odds and turn more positive if Trump's odds start to feel good, but the race is too close.'' 'If the situation continues, it will remain within the range.'' Bernstein Estate, Notes Shared with decryption.
He added that while Trump has been more overt in his courting of crypto voters, “Harris is more conservative in her stance on digital assets, and as a result, may be less likely to regulate the industry in the short term.” “There is a possibility that support for the above may be reduced,” he added.
Bernstein's analysis also takes into account market sentiment, and the report notes that traders on decentralized betting platform Polymarket have significantly increased their positions in the wake of Trump's victory. “While not certain, the odds have shifted significantly in Trump’s favor, suggesting that traders are bracing for a Trump victory and its impact on markets, particularly the crypto sector,” the report said. There is.
Currently, Polymarket shows Trump with a 7% lead over Harris. Polymarket odds are often seen as reflecting market sentiment, and the recent shift in support for Trump could impact Bitcoin's potential price movements in the short term.
Polymarket's clear exclusion of US users from its platform, and its blockchain roots, have led to users opposing Trump, who has made many clearer campaign promises to the crypto industry than his opponents. It has been mentioned before that this may mean that they are inherently biased. But Bernstein disagrees, simply because there's too much money at stake.
“Polymarket's liquidity, with more than $1.5 billion in stakes, is real money in motion and we believe bettors bet on probability rather than actually reflecting bias,” analysts said. are writing.
They further emphasized that while both candidates support digital assets, the Trump administration is expected to provide broader support in areas such as Bitcoin mining and institutionalization, among others. President Trump's policies could push Bitcoin past an all-time high of $74,000, pushing the cryptocurrency to new heights, according to a report.
“We predict that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump becomes president,” the analysts said. “However, if Harris wins, there is a risk that Bitcoin will test the lower end of the $40,000 range in the near term, reflecting concerns about increased regulation.”
The report also highlights that the outcome of the election will not only affect Bitcoin, but also other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). “We expect other crypto assets to remain range-bound until the situation becomes clearer post-election, with Bitcoin leading the market movement,” the report said.
Edited by Stacey Elliott.
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