The growth rate of the Greek economy and the increase in investment and exports are currently the highest in the country compared to other countries in the euro area, as shown in the statistical table of the European Commission's Spring Forecast published on Wednesday. It is the strongest point.
On the contrary, weak data such as trade deficit, savings and, of course, public debt and demographics rank Greece at the bottom and sound alarm bells for the future.
As stated in the report, the post-pandemic economic recovery is strong and the pace remains more than double the European Union average, with the euro area recovering at 0.8% this year compared to the forecast of 2.2%. Yes, Greece is the 8th highest. position. However, this is lower than the government's recent stabilization program forecast of 2.5% and significantly lower than the budget forecast (2.9%).
Similarly, investment is predicted by the European Commission to increase by 6.7% in 2024, the second highest in the euro area. This is expected to result in an average increase of 0.1%. The government is more optimistic, estimating the rate at 9.1% (previously forecast in the Budget was 15.1%). However, despite the acceleration, Greek investment as a share of GDP has reached 14%, well below the euro area average of 22%.
The most powerful elements of the economy include the fiscal sector. With a projected primary budget surplus of 2.3% of GDP, Greece ranks third in the euro area (after Cyprus and Denmark) with an average primary deficit of 1.9%.
This fiscal discipline is certainly a result of the need to address public debt, which is perhaps the Greek economy's greatest weakness. The European Commission's public debt estimate is 153.9% of GDP, and Greece consistently ranks first in the euro area with an average public debt of 90% of GDP.
Another cause for concern is the external deficit, another part of the twin deficits that caused the crisis.
