Quarterly National Accounts – GDP and Employment

Quarterly GDP growth rate

GDP in the euro area decreased by 0.1%, stable in the EU

According to estimates published by Eurostat (see data sources below), GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU compared to the previous quarter. Eurozone GDP in the third quarter of 2023 decreased by 0.1%, but remained stable in the EU.

Compared to the same period last year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% in the euro area and 0.2% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2023, after increasing by 0.1% in both zones in the previous quarter.

US GDP in Q4 2023 increased by 0.8% sequentially (compared to +1.2% in Q3 2023). Compared to the same period last year, GDP increased by 3.1% (+2.9% in the previous quarter).

Table 1: GDP growth rate (%, change based on seasonally adjusted data)
sauce: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp) and (naidq_10_gdp) for Japan and US data

GDP growth rate by member country

Among EU member states, Denmark (+2.6 %), Croatia (+1.3 %) and Slovenia (+1.1 %) recorded the highest GDP growth in Q4 2023, but the largest decline This was seen in Ireland (-3.4%), Finland (-0.8%) and Estonia (-0.7%).

Figure 1: GDP growth (% change from previous quarter, based on seasonally adjusted data, Q4 2023)
sauce: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp)

Components of GDP and their contribution to growth

In the fourth quarter of 2023, household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU (after increasing by 0.3% in both regions in the previous quarter). Government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU (+0.7% and +0.6% respectively in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.0% in the euro area and 0.9% in the EU (versus 0.0% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU in the previous quarter). Exports remained stable in the euro area and increased by 0.9% in the EU (previous quarter -1.2% in the euro area and -1.1% in the EU). Imports rose by 0.6% in the euro area and 1.3% in the EU (compared to the previous quarter, when they fell by 1.4% in the eurozone and 1.6% in the EU).

Household final consumption expenditure contributed little to GDP growth in the euro area and was positive in the EU (+0.1 percentage point (pp)). The contribution from government final expenditure was positive in both zones (+0.1 point). The contribution of gross fixed capital formation was positive in both the euro area and the EU (+0.2 points). Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth in both the euro area (-0.1 points) and the EU (-0.2 points). The contribution of exports minus imports was negative for both the euro area and the EU (-0.3 and -0.2 points, respectively).

Figure 2: Breakdown of GDP growth by total expenditure (quarter-on-quarter) growth contribution (in percentage points, from Q1 2023 to Q4 2023)
sauce: Eurostat Eurostat (namq_10_gdp)

quarterly employment growth

The number of employed people increased by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.2% in the EU.

Employment in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU compared to the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2023, employment in both the euro area and the EU increased by his 0.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2023, working hours increased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU (compared to 0.0% in both zones in the third quarter of 2023).

Compared to the same period last year, headcount-based employment in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU (after +1.4% in the euro area and +1.2% in the EU) . EU in the third quarter of 2023). Working hours in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU compared to the same period last year (+0.9% and +0.7% in the third quarter of 2023, respectively). 2023).

These data on employment provide a complete picture of labor input that is consistent with national accounts output and income indicators.

Table 2: Growth rate of employment (¹) (%)
sauce: Eurostat (namq_10_a10_e)

Employment growth by member country

Among the EU member states, the highest growth in employment was in Romania (+1.5 %), Malta (+1.4 %) and Spain (+0.8 %). The largest declines in Q4 2023 compared to the previous quarter were recorded in Latvia (-1.0 %), Finland (-0.6 %) and Poland (-0.2 %).

Greece (+4.7 %), Malta (+2.0 %) and the Czech Republic (+1.6 %) had the highest growth in employment measured by hours worked. Estonia (-2.0 %), Portugal (-1.5 %), Germany, Austria and Finland (all -0.9 %) showed the largest declines in Q4 2023 compared to the previous quarter.

Figure 4: Employment growth rate (% change from previous quarter, based on seasonally adjusted data, Q4 2023)
sauce: Eurostat (namq_10_a10_e)

employment level

Employment in the euro area and EU increases by 500,000 people

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that 217.2 million people were employed in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2023, of which 169.3 million were employed in the euro area. Masu.

Figure 5: Employment trends in number of workers and hours worked (index 2015=100, based on seasonally adjusted data, Q1 2008 to Q4 2023)
sauce: Eurostat (namq_10_a10_e)

labor productivity

By combining GDP and employment data, we can estimate labor productivity. An analysis of year-on-year growth rates shows that productivity growth (number of employed people) in both regions was lower between 2013 and 2018 before the COVID-19 pandemic caused major fluctuations in 2020. base) fluctuated around 1%.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, human productivity decreased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU compared to the same period last year.

Compared to the same period last year, productivity based on working hours decreased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU.

Figure 6: Labor productivity growth (%, year-over-year change based on seasonally adjusted data, from Q1 2008 to Q4 2023)
sauce: Eurostat (namq_10_lp_ulc)