Summary
After the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, industrial production levels rose again slowly and by May 2011 had recovered more than 90% of their pre-crisis values. In late 2011 and 2012, industrial production in the EU increased. A gradual downward trend. Since the beginning of 2013, the index value has increased slightly but steadily, and by the end of 2017 it had almost recovered its pre-crisis level. EU industrial production increased only slightly in 2018 and decreased in 2019 (Figure 1). In 2020, the COVID-19 crisis and associated containment measures such as lockdowns led to a significant decline in industrial production, particularly of consumer durables and capital goods. In the months that followed, industrial production recovered significantly. In the summer of 2022, the trend of industrial production has changed. From August 2022 to September 2023, total industrial production decreased by more than 5%. Particularly significant declines were recorded in durable consumer goods (-9.4%) and capital goods (-7.6%).
Development of major industrial groups and individual industries
Table 1 shows the general development of the major industry groups and a more detailed breakdown of the NACE sector industry groups. Capital goods and consumer durables were most affected by the Covid-19 crisis, especially machinery and equipment (-12.5%) and motor vehicles (-19.5%). Among the major non-durable consumer goods industry groups, leather products (-26.1 percent) and clothing (-24.6 percent) experienced significant declines.
The growth rates of various industrial sectors in 2022 are shown in Figure 2. Relatively high increases were recorded in coal and lignite mining, pharmaceuticals and mining support activities, as well as computers and electronics. Meanwhile, production of chemicals decreased by 6.1%, extraction of crude oil and natural gas decreased by 6.0%, and production of basic metals decreased by 4.2%.
Development by country
After the recovery from the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 and the subsequent years of recovery, 2012 saw negative industrial development again for the EU as a whole. This declining trend in the EU continued in 2013. However, the negative growth rate in 2013 was smaller than in 2012. In 2014 the EU returned to positive growth, and from 2015 it lasted until 2018. In 2019, industrial production declined again. The EU and Eurozone, particularly Germany, Luxembourg and Romania. As a result of the coronavirus crisis and containment measures, all EU member states except Ireland experienced a negative rate of change in industrial production in 2020. However, the rate of change is from about -11% in Italy to -11% in France, Luxembourg, Germany and only -0.3% in Malta. The recovery in 2021 resulted in relatively high growth rates (9.1% in the EU and 8.9% in the euro area). High growth rates of over 15% were recorded in Belgium, Ireland and Lithuania. In 2022, particularly strong growth was seen in Bulgaria (12.8%), Ireland (18.9%) and Poland (11.0%).
data source
Despite its name, the Industrial Production Index is not intended to measure production, but in theory should reflect the development of value added in different sectors of industry. This means that the input that comes from one branch to another must be subtracted from its total output. In this way, double counting of production is prevented and the degree of vertical integration of branches does not affect the results of the indicators.
But in reality, collecting value-added data every month is difficult. Therefore, most statistical agencies obtain monthly production data from other sources, including post-shrinkage sales, physical production data, labor inputs, intermediate consumption of raw materials and energy, etc.
Eurostat publishes monthly industrial production indicators for the EU, the euro area and its member states. Data are also collected for several countries outside the EU (Table 2). Data is presented in calendar-adjusted/business day-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted formats. The data in this article is calculated using 2015 as the base year (=100). Short-term statistical data as of March 2024 uses the base year 2021.
context
The industrial production index is one of the most important short-term statistical indicators. It is used to early identify turning points in economic development and assess the future development of GDP. To this end, a detailed activity breakdown is provided on a monthly basis and with a fairly short delay (1 month and 10 days). The Industrial Production Index is one of the so-called “European Principal Economic Indicators'' (PEEI), used to monitor and guide economic and financial policy in the EU and the Eurozone.
