The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 0.42% to end the day at 4.310%. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.49%. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 fell 0.96% and 0.65%, respectively.
friday market movers
Vonovia It fell 10.07% on Friday. German real estate companies reported their biggest losses ever in 2023, accelerating the decline in stock prices. A loss of $7.35 billion was incurred due to the recording of real estate write-downs.
Infineon Technologies down 6.02%; SAP It fell 1.70% on sentiment towards the Fed's interest rate path.
However, auto stocks found much-needed support on Friday. Daimler Truck Holding Increased by 2.09%, mercedes benz group It increased by 0.77%. Volkswagen It closed up 0.74%. Porsche and BMW They closed up 0.64% and 0.46%, respectively.
China's economic indicators set the tone
Economic data from China could set the tone for trading on Monday. Retail sales, unemployment, fixed asset investment, and industrial production statistics are worthy of investors' attention.
Industrial production increased by 7.0% year-on-year in January-February, after increasing by 6.8% in December. Economists expect industrial production to increase by 5.0%.
Fixed asset investment increased by 4.2% from the previous year (January to February) and by 3.0% in December. Economists expect a 3.2% increase.
Retail sales increased 5.5% (January-February) after increasing 7.4% year-on-year in December. However, the unemployment rate rose to 5.3% from 5.1% in February. Economists had expected retail sales to rise 5.2% and the unemployment rate to rise 5.1%.
Focus on euro area inflation and trade
Eurozone economic data will be of interest to investors on Monday. The focus will be on final inflation statistics and trade data. An upward revision in preliminary inflation readings could impact investors' bets on an ECB rate cut in June and put pressure on the DAX.
The annual inflation rate fell to 2.6% from 2.8% in February, preliminary figures showed. Core inflation fell to 3.1% from 3.3%.
However, the impact of inflation numbers could be limited if terms of trade improve. Economists expect the trade surplus to widen to 20 billion euros from 16.8 billion euros in January. Investors should consider data import and export.
No German economic data was released for investors to consider on Monday.
US housing sector attracts attention
Later in the session, data from the US housing sector should also be considered. Economists expect the NAHB housing market index to remain at 48 in March. The market considers the US housing sector to be a litmus test for the US economy. The upward trend in housing sector statistics could indicate the resilience of the US economy.
However, this number is unlikely to influence the FOMC's monetary policy decisions and forecasts on Wednesday.
short term forecast
The near-term trend of the DAX will depend on euro area inflation statistics and future Fed interest rate decisions. Slower-than-expected eurozone inflation and a dovish Federal Reserve could increase buying demand for DAX-listed stocks.
In futures, the DAX and Nasdaq Mini rose 36 and 63 points, respectively.
DAX technical indicators
daily chart
DAX remains well above the 50-day and 200-day EMA, confirming the bullish signal for price.
A break above the March 14 all-time high of 18,039 could increase bullish momentum towards the 18,200 level.
China's economic data and euro zone inflation rates are worth considering by investors.
However, a decline below the 17,900 handle could signal a decline to the 17,750 handle.
The 14-day RSI is 74.83, indicating that the DAX is in overbought territory. Selling pressure may increase at the March 14th high of 18,039 yen.
