Bitcoin (BTC) prices have been integrated within the approximately $5,500 range since March 9th, as the $84,000 level represents rigidity resistance.
Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Bitstamp data show that BTC prices vibrate between $78,599 and $84,000, as shown in the chart below.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Here's why Bitcoin prices remain flat today:
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Tensions in Trump's trade war create uncertainty in the market.
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Demand for Bitcoin and neutral funding rates is declining.
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BTC prices remain pinned below the 200-day SMA.
Wide economic uncertainty, weakening demand
The stagnation of Bitcoin prices is due to wider economic and geopolitical factors now.
What I Know:
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Trump's new policies, including his proposed trade tariffs in Mexico and Canada, are hampering the market.
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Investors are eschewing risk assets like Bitcoin, keeping in mind concerns about inflation and potential tariff warfare.
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As Cointelegraph recently reported, Bitcoin's November rally lost steam amidst the weakening of the global economy.
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According to GlassNode, this has weakened demand for Bitcoin.
For example, the cost base for short-term holders between 1W and 1M is flattered more than the first quarter long-term holders (1m-3m), and “indicating early signs of weakening demand for the time being.”
Related: Bitcoin prices fall by 2% as lower inflation boosts our trade war horror
Bitcoin's decline fell below the $95,000 level, with a cost base of 1w-1m below the 1m-3m cost base, “confirming a transition to net capital outflow.”
GlassNode pointed out:
“This reversal shows that macro uncertainty has surprised demand and reduced new influx … and new buyers are currently hesitant to absorb the pressures of sellers, suggesting a step-up to a more cautious market environment,” he said.
Bitcoin STH Capital Flow. Source: GlassNode
Until the current trends due to macroeconomic tailbones such as Fed rate reductions change, Bitcoin could struggle to get out of its current range and is vulnerable to a pullback to $70,000.
Another clear signal of Bitcoin stagnation is the financing rate of permanent futures. BTC's funding rate, reflecting the cost of holding a long or short position in Crypto Futures, is hovering nearly 0%, indicating an increase in indecisiveness among traders.
Bitcoin Permanent Futures Funding Rate across all Exchanges. Source: GlassNode
Without speculative fuel, Bitcoin is struggling to move in either direction, and prices remain in a tight range as traders are waiting for their next catalyst.
Bitcoin prices face hard resistance, on the contrary
Bitcoin is also traded under major areas of resistance, as shown in the chart below.
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On March 9th, BTC fell below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,736.
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This trendline has curtailed the latest efforts for a sustained recovery.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Popular Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades said the 200-day SMA was around $83,700 and the 200-day EMA was at a critical level as it was a “solid indicator of the mid- and long-term trends and overall strength of the market.”
In other words, generating a critical closing beyond the 200-day SMA and inverting it to a new level of support could lead to longer Bitcoin price integration periods.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
