Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), continues to lose momentum against Bitcoin (BTC), with the ETH/BTC pair hovering around 0.0365 BTC as of October 25, 2021. This is the lowest level since then.
ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The overwhelming launch of exchange-traded funds and increased competition from smart contract rival Solana reduced traders' appetite for Ethereum in 2024.
These factors are likely to continue to put downward pressure on ETH/BTC in the coming months, and technical indicators are also suggesting the same.
ETH price could fall by another 15%
Ether’s continued price decline is occurring in what appears to be the collapse phase of the common inverted cup and handle (IC&H) pattern.
It begins with an upward trend, reaches a peak, and then forms a rounded top that resembles an upside-down U-shaped “cup.” After the inverse cup, there was a smaller, temporary rebound (handle) that formed a consolidation period that trended slightly upward or sideways.
Related: Ethereum ICO participant releases 3,000 ETH and cashes out $7.6 million
The IC&H pattern typically resolves when the price falls below neckline support to a level with a length equal to the maximum distance between the peak of the cup and the neckline.
ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
As of October 25th, ETH/BTC has entered the same breakdown stage and is looking at a downside target of approximately 0.0319 BTC, down more than 15% from the current price.
Ethereum bulls hope for 25%-50% rebound
Ethereum could enter a new bullish cycle against Bitcoin after falling to the IC&H pattern target, which is roughly in line with the bearish setup shared by certified market engineer and former fund manager Axel Kibar. They match.
Kibar expects the ETH/BTC pair to fall towards 0.029BTC, calling it a key “inflection point” following a 200% rally in its previous test as support in 2021.
Monthly chart of ETH/BTC. Source: Axel Kibar
The chances of ETH/BTC recovering from the 0.029-0.0319 BTC range are further enhanced by the pair’s monthly relative strength index (RSI), which dropped to historic lows as of October 25th.
The monthly RSI for ETH/BTC is around 33, just 2 points above the oversold threshold of 30. The potential for ETH/BTC to fall in the coming months suggests that the monthly RSI could become “oversold” for the first time in history, and the market could become overextended. Disadvantages.
Monthly price chart of ETH/BTC. Source: TradingView
A drop in the RSI into oversold territory could dry up sellers and increase the likelihood of a bullish reversal. That's because the so-called “oversold” RSI level is seen as a potential buying opportunity, as it suggests the asset is undervalued and could rebound.
If a bullish reversal occurs, ETH/BTC could target the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around 0.0482BTC. Additionally, the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA, red wave) located around 0.0549 BTC serves as another major upside target.
sauce: Nico
In other words, ETH/BTC could recover between 25% and 50% in 2025, measured from current price levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
