Popular cryptocurrency strategist Benjamin Cowen warns that certain macroeconomic data could derail Bitcoin's (BTC) breakout above $70,000.
Cowen told his 873,000 followers on social media platform He said he believed it would be decided.
The analyst said Bitcoin has historically rallied during the fourth quarter of a halving, but if BTC takes cues from macroeconomic data and follows monetary policy's view, the expected surge could be delayed by several months. It is pointed out that there is.
“According to the cyclical view of BTC, BTC should rise in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The monetary policy view says it will fall (and rise in early 2025).
A less cyclical view made sense in March, but now the debate is over which view is more dominant.
If BTC can move above $70,000 with more than just a wick effect, it would support the prevailing cyclical view.
If BTC fails again at $70,000 (or just below) and starts to climb back to $64,000, the monetary policy view will prevail and a breakout will not occur until 2025. ”
Cowen said BTC's next big move could hinge on U.S. labor market data, which is expected to be released on November 1st.
“What is most likely to determine the near-term direction is the labor market data released this week.”
Earlier this month, Cowen said that if the US unemployment rate continues to rise as the year ends, Bitcoin will likely find itself in a bearish situation. The same analyst recently noted that investors are likely waiting for upcoming employment data before deciding whether to jump into BTC.
“Markets will want to know whether the recent decline in unemployment is a new trend or whether it is still stochastically rising.”
Cowen warns that if the labor market numbers disappoint, Bitcoin could stand to witness a capitulation event.
“Bitcoin could see another rapid sell-off (like it did in April and August of this year), and it is likely that it will end up in December.”
In April, BTC corrected by about 18%, and in August it fell by ~25%.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,239, up nearly 5% over the past day.
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