Ethereum's lackluster performance in 2024 has caused many investors around the world to lose hope in the Ethereum price. While many top altcoins have more than doubled in value in 2024, ETH continues to disappoint investors. Often when sentiment is at an all-time low, assets tend to soar. Now that sentiment for Ethereum has dried up, it may be time to ask: Is Ethereum's price forming a macro bottom?
Is Ethereum price forming a macro bottom?
The answer is probably yes. Technical and on-chain indicators suggest that ETH’s bottom is not too far away. Let's take a look at the technicals as to why Ether is forming a generational bottom before the start of a massive bull market.
The idea of a macro bottom revolves around how the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and price movement can suggest that ETH may be forming a generational bottom. Masu.
In this paper, we consider the bottom of the last two higher timeframes and the price action around the 50-day and 200-day EMA leading to the new ATH. With a similar signal forming now, we can speculate that ETH may also be forming a similar bottom leading to a bull run.
At both of the previous cycle bottoms, Ethereum price remained range-bound, primarily below the 50-day and 200-period EMAs. Failed recovery attempts above the 200-period EMA resulted in fakeouts and corrections. This retracement formed strong support, leading to a bull market and a new ATH.
As of October 26, 2024, Ether has completed its disguise and is now declining in search of a potential bottom. If history repeats itself, a rebound rally above the 200-period EMA could confirm the beginning of a bull market.
What is the bottom level of Ethereum macros?
If ETH has already formed a macro bottom, it would be the August 4th swing low of $2,127. However, if the above Ethereum price fractal were to play out and ETH were to fall at that point, it would wipe out the relatively comparable low formed around $2,127 and set a new macro bottom around $2,100 or $2,000. Possibly.
Why will everyone hate Ethereum in 2024?
Now that you understand why Ethereum price is forming a macro bottom, why do so many investors disagree with this outlook and think ETH could fall significantly or underperform? Let's take a look. Additionally, let's find out what investors are saying about Ether and the opinion of ETH founder Vitalik Buterin.
Ethereum’s year-to-date profits have failed to attract crypto investors
Over the past 300 days, i.e. year-to-date, the value of ETH has increased by 8%. Traditional financial assets such as gold and the S&P 500, which are relatively stable asset classes, returned 33% and 22%, respectively, in 2024. To make matters worse, Solana (SOL), a well-known competitor to Ether, has risen by more than $8. % within 24 hours last week. The year-to-date performance of BTC and SOL prices shows an increase of 51% and 53%, respectively.
Two reasons why Ether will lag behind in 2024?
Perhaps the main reason for Ethereum's lackluster performance can be attributed to two important factors. The launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF, the story of ETH and the explosion of memecoins in Solana.
Spot ETF takes the spotlight off ETH
The launch of ETFs was a major step forward for the entire crypto ecosystem. There are spot ETFs for both BTC and ETH, but traditional financial and institutional investors prefer BTC over ETH primarily because of how simple Bitcoin's story is: that it is “digital gold.” I like it. Meanwhile, ETH must sell the story of a “world computer” and “smart contracts” to baby boomers.
Additionally, spot BTC ETFs attracted too much liquidity, leaving little for ETH.
Ethereum killer Solana attracts ETH’s attention
Solana became ground zero due to the meme coin story explosion. Many individual investors who invested a few dollars became millionaires, or at least made life-changing amounts of money, in just a few hours or days. This story-based retail frenzy boded well for SOL due to fast transaction speeds, low gas prices, and easy-to-use applications.
Ethereum, with its relatively slow transaction speeds and high gas fees, was left behind, while SOL received huge capital inflows from both institutions and retail alike.
Other reasons for ETH's underperformance in 2024 include constant selling pressure from the Ethereum Foundation, lack of ETF inflows, and Bitcoin-Ether correlation moving within a 7-month range. Including high.
Taken together, these factors explain why ETH price has returned less than 10% over the past 300 days.
What do investors think about ETH?
Popular analyst Byzantine General pointed to Ethereum vs. Solana and asked his 207,000 followers if “the entire market has actually just completely abandoned $ETH.”
“SOL is casually up 400% versus ETH and I see no reason for this outperformance to stop,” crypto influencer Sheldon Evans wrote on X.
Other indicators further indicate ETH’s dire state. For example, Solana's fees reached $2.7 million as of October 26, surpassing Ethereum's fees of $2.6 million.
What does Vitalik Buterin think about ETH?
Vitalik Buterin is optimistic about Ethereum and its future. Buterin has already outlined his thoughts on the next few upgrades for ETH, both in the long and short term. Regarding the price aspect of ETH, he mentioned complaints about him and the Ethereum Foundation selling ether. Buterin said:
“The ETH Foundation
(i) Ethereum will not bleed 5 million ETH per year on proof of work
(ii) Today's fees are low.
(iii) TX is included within 30 seconds instead of 1-30 minutes (eip 1559)
Show some respect.”
He also said that he has “not sold a single ETH in the past month” and that the total amount of ETH he holds is “actually increasing.”
summary
Ethereum's disappointing performance in 2024 has many investors questioning its potential. However, a closer look at the technical and on-chain indicators reveals a possible macro bottom formation, suggesting a significant rebound. While various factors such as Solana and the rise of Bitcoin ETFs have contributed to ETH's poor performance, Vitalik Buterin's optimism and planned upgrades offer hope.
As ETH approaches a critical juncture, investors must weigh bearish sentiment against the possibility of a generational bottom. A recovery above the 200-period EMA could confirm the beginning of a bull market. With Ethereum's long-term prospects intact, investors may reconsider their stance.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
Ethereum’s macro bottom could be around $2,127 (August 4th swing low), or potentially lower ($2,100 or $2,000).
Key factors include the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF, Ethereum's complicated story, Solana's meme coin explosion, and constant selling pressure from the Ethereum Foundation.
Vitalik Buterin is optimistic, outlines future upgrades and addresses complaints regarding ETH sales. He hasn't sold any ETH in the past month and his holdings are increasing.
akash girimas
Akash Girimath is an engineer by training with a deep interest in the intricacies of the crypto market. As a senior reporter and analyst, he specializes in crypto analysis and contributes his expertise to prominent platforms such as AMBCrypto and FXStreet. In addition to his analytical work, Akash actively trades cryptocurrencies and manages a small crypto fund for friends and family. His role includes providing insightful market analysis and keeping readers informed about the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies. Follow him on Youtube , X and LINKedIn
Disclaimer: The content presented may contain the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market conditions. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication assumes no responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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