Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of positive price momentum for the first time since June, as it firmly breaks through the $69,000 price range and is poised to move into a “euphoric bull market.”
According to Glassnode's latest “Week Onchain Newsletter”, the recent rally has seen Bitcoin's spot price break through key technical and on-chain price levels, with many investors' positions reverting to unrealized gains and driving market sentiment. It is said that there is a possibility that it will be boosted.
The AVIV ratio, a key on-chain metric that assesses unrealized gains and losses for active investors, remains constructive, suggesting profitability remains strong despite market challenges. .
This ratio indicates that Bitcoin is about to transition from a “frenetic bull market” regime to a “euphoric bull market,” characterized by a sustained rise above its all-time high of $69,000. , suggesting potential room for further growth.
Reuse of key metrics
The recent price rally has pushed Bitcoin above both its 200-day moving average and 111-day moving average (DMA), historically important indicators for investors.
Additionally, the report highlighted that the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) acts as a key support during macroeconomic events, strengthening market resilience as Bitcoin maintains its upward trend.
Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, Bitcoin has been stuck in an unusual trading range for several months, indicating a period of consolidation rather than the typical dramatic highs and falls.
Glassnode noted that net capital inflows have accelerated, increasing by $21.8 billion over the past 30 days, pushing Bitcoin's realization cap to an all-time high of $646 billion.
The system returns to a “cash and carry” strategy
The Bitcoin derivatives market is also showing strong growth, with open interest in perpetual and fixed-term futures contracts reaching an all-time high of $32.9 billion.
The growing presence of institutional investors is highlighted by the CME futures contract, which recorded $11.3 billion in open interest. These products provide institutional investors with regulated derivatives exposure and allow them to participate in yield-producing strategies such as cash-and-carry transactions.
Despite this institutional activity, futures trading volumes remain somewhat subdued, indicating that the market has yet to experience a significant spike in overall trading activity.
Nevertheless, cash-and-carry strategies currently yield about 9.6%, nearly double the yield on short-term U.S. Treasuries, especially given the Federal Reserve's potential for rate cuts in the coming months. As a result, institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin is expected to increase further.
Additionally, continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures markets suggest that institutional investors are increasingly adopting long spot and short futures strategies to capture yield. This could expand Bitcoin's liquidity and strengthen its position as a key asset in the portfolios of both retail and institutional investors.
