In the field of decentralized prediction markets, a researcher has discovered that a cryptocurrency bettor who goes by the pseudonym “Fredi9999” or simply “Fredi” has dramatically increased the odds of former President Donald Trump on the cryptocurrency platform Polymarket. accused of manipulating the Over the past two weeks, Mr. Trump's chances of winning have increased significantly from roughly equal to Vice President Kamala Harris's to 60.7%, while Ms. Harris's chances have fallen to 39.3%.
The allegations were brought to light by pseudonymous political cryptocurrency bettor Domar (@Domahhh). Dormer detailed his findings in an extensive thread about X. Dormer said: He is single-handedly causing the price of Trump to skyrocket in prediction markets around the world. Spoiler alert: I think I managed to get in touch with him, but after a few minutes he blocked me. Sensitive person! Let's get back to the topic. ”
Is the crypto platform Polymarket manipulated?
Dormer detailed the alleged operation's modus operandi, emphasizing that Freddie had placed large bets on Trump alone, reportedly exceeding $25 million. This influx of capital introduced a premium of about 5% to 8% on Trump odds, making bets on Trump higher, while also reducing bets on Harris by a similar margin. . Dormer said this strategy upsets the polymarket's supply-demand balance and leads to skewed pricing that doesn't accurately reflect overall market sentiment.
Further analysis by Domer revealed that Fredi9999 was not limited to a single account. Instead, multiple accounts, PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo, are believed to be controlled by the same entity and collectively hold positions worth approximately $28 million. The fact that large deposits from cryptocurrency exchange Kraken (typically in the $500,000 or $1 million range) are synced to these accounts before deploying the funds solely to Trump-related markets may impact market results. suggests a concerted effort to provide
Supporting this claim, another researcher, @fozzydiablo, identified patterns across four accounts that suggest single-user control. Domer referenced @fozzydiablo's research and linked to a detailed analysis.
Data suggests a single entity is buying all Trump-related bets. @polymarket Total amount: $26 million.
– Freddy 9999
– Princess Caro
– Mitchie
– Theo 4By looking at their betting activity, you can analyze when their account is placing bets.
The most interesting thing is when… pic.twitter.com/2eSv2AKRhW— Fozzy (@fozzydiablo) October 16, 2024
Dormer also speculated about the possible identity and motives behind Freddy's actions. Observations about language patterns in the comments of accounts associated with Freddie, such as the use of both British and American English spellings and distinctive spaces before and after punctuation marks, suggest a possible French origin. Dormer claimed that “the AI thinks the writing/spelling/strange misspellings are indicative of a French person who studied British English and spent time in America.”
However, Mr. Dormer suspects ulterior motives, including scenarios in which Freddy could be part of a larger plan or even engage in elaborate role-playing acts intended to obscure his true intentions. recognized the possibility of Researchers highlighted the unprecedented nature of betting the entire $25 million on a single candidate and stressed the need for further investigation to uncover the underlying motivations.
Dormer writes: “Perhaps this is all a LARP and someone is just trying to pretend to be having fun with all this and seem intentionally unsophisticated. Maybe it has something to do with Elon?” [Musk] Or any other huge Republican mega-donor. I don't know. It's a bit of a game to figure out what's going on here. Maybe that's actually the case [famous crypto trader] GCR even though GCR says it's not him. GCR speculates that someone is trying to make Bitcoin skyrocket, which is a good explanation. ”
The revelation came amid criticism from Hasu, a strategic advisor to crypto project Lido Finance and head of strategy at Flashbots. He said this via X: “Polymarket is certainly good, but I feel like it's time to call them out on their bullshit of pushing 'volume' to the forefront while actively hiding open interest all over their website. […] This market is still not deep on a traditional scale, especially considering the size of the event. Misleading reports and the huge shadow cast by the media only make us think so. This assumes that Polymarket has 0 fake volumes. ”
Historically, significant personal bets have sometimes influenced prediction markets. Dormer cited past examples in the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections in which single large bettors tried to sway the market odds for John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively. Although neither case ultimately changed the outcome of the election, there was widespread skepticism about the effectiveness and impact of such large-scale bets.
Dormer ended his analysis by questioning the broader implications of Freddy's actions. Good question! It is important to know who you are betting against. Should I be scared because this is a very smart trading company? This is a fool betting on what he wants and I should be happy? Is this just a lame attempt to give the impression that Trump is winning by a large margin, with no other motive? It's hard to understand what's going on here. ”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $67,646.
Featured image from Reuters, chart from TradingView.com
