The Spot Bitcoin ETF is roaring towards its best week in months, absorbing more than $1.8 billion as the 2024 presidential election tightens in its final weeks, according to CoinShares data. are.
“The election is really at the forefront of price performance,” said James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. decryption. “The macro data that has typically driven prices higher suggests that Bitcoin prices should fall, but they haven't fallen recently.”
Butterfill noted that data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday sent a bearish signal as building permits fell 2.9% in September from the previous month. Economists measure the strength of the U.S. housing market and economy. written in pencil A decline of 0.1%.
in ABC/ An Ipsos poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 6 points a month ago. refresh This week showed President Trump is gaining momentum. The poll, conducted October 4-8, found that among voters, Harris had an approval rating of 50%, while Trump had an approval rating of 48%.
With 17 days left until Election Day, Butterfill said traders are likely supporting President Trump's victory. While Harris was making a certain overture “It is clear that the policies under the Trump administration are far more favorable to Bitcoin,” he recently told crypto holders.
The former president has embraced cryptocurrencies on the campaign trail for months, calling himself Defender of digital assets. From backing US Bitcoin miners to saying he would fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, President Trump has done a lot. Cryptocurrency-specific promises.
BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF alone saw more than $1 billion in inflows this week, making it the sixth-largest inflow week on record based on partial week data. But this trend is not limited to products from Wall Street giants, Butterfill said, with significant inflows from multiple asset managers.
“We are also seeing inflows at Grayscale,” Butterfill said, noting that Grayscale Bitcoin, which saw positive daily net inflows just 14 times before recording three consecutive days of inflows this week. You mentioned trust.
On Friday, the price of Bitcoin rose 2% to hit a two-month high just below $69,000. Meanwhile, open interest increased by 8.7%. bitcoin futures Butterfill said the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has shown an increase in “basis trading” between financial institutions since Monday.
By gaining exposure to Bitcoin's spot price through an ETF while selling futures, the trade “tends to actually go up during periods of very good price momentum,” Butterfill added.
In polymarket, Mr. Trump's odds are swollen The probability of beating Harris is 60%. That's up from 54% on Monday, said Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at Bitwise. decryption It said in a statement that inflows accelerated significantly due to gambling activity on the platform.
Evidence of Trump trading echoed Tom Dunleavy, a partner at crypto investment firm MV Global. he said. decryption In a statement, it said spot inflows for Bitcoin ETFs have tracked Mr. Trump's odds very closely over the past few weeks.
“It's becoming increasingly clear that the market views Trump's victory as a very positive thing for the industry,” he said. “Inflows into Bitcoin have an almost one-to-one correlation with an increase in President Trump’s odds of winning.”
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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