on the radar
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Croatia's trade deficit reached 1357 million euros.
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Romania's trade balance was -2.88 billion euros, and the final GDP for the second quarter of 2024 was revised upward (0.3% compared to the previous quarter, 0.9% compared to the previous year).
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In Hungary, inflation fell to 3.0% year-on-year in August.
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In the Czech Republic, inflation rose to 2.6% y/y (2.0% y/y) in August, slightly higher than expected.
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In Slovakia, industrial production increased by 0.9% year-on-year in August.
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Slovenia will announce its industrial production growth at 10:30 am CET.
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At 11 a.m. Central European Time, Croatia published producer prices.
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Finally, at noon CET, Serbia will announce its interest rates.
economic development
In the euro area, the gross household savings rate is gradually increasing. Excluding the pandemic period (when savings rates skyrocketed), total savings rates were the highest they have been in a decade. The average savings rate was around 12% before the pandemic, but it reportedly reached 15.6% in the euro area in Q2 2024. Although we do not know the breakdown for CEE countries, we expect a similar trend. Data from the Economic Indicators Sentiment Survey points out that the desire to save over the next 12 months remains as high as during the pandemic, with households using recent increases in disposable income not only for consumption but also for saving purposes. This suggests that These actions by households could slow down the recovery.
market development
The Hungarian forint and Polish zloty continued to appreciate against the euro, with EURHUF approaching 398 and EURPLN below 4.30. Long-term yields have been a mixed bag this week. The Czech Republic held a government bond auction on Wednesday and successfully sold 2027 and 2025 bonds amid strong demand (bidding ratios were 4.55x and 2.11x, respectively). An important local event is the Serbian Central Bank meeting. We expect the central bank to continue monetary easing and cut rates by another 25 basis points, bringing the key rate to 5.5%.
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